The Chiefs are moving to the top of the list, but not the list we want them to top. At 3-11 the Chiefs now appear to have the fourth pick in the upcoming NFL draft. With two more likely losses on the team’s schedule, it appears certain that the Chiefs will indeed have another top five pick this year. And while the Chiefs need all the help they can get, top five picks are virtually untradeable, limiting their options moving forward.

I have already written a couple times about the Chiefs need to draft offensive lineman (read NFL Draft and A Tale of Two Lines). My opinion remains unchanged. Though after watching the defense fall apart the last few weeks, it’s clear the Chiefs have many holes to fill.

What’s interesting for me is watching the players change on the projected draft boards. Just a few weeks ago I’d find one or two offensive tackles projected in the first round. Scouts Inc. now has five in their top 32 available players. And that will continue to change. Though Mel Kiper still only has Russell Okung from Oklahoma State in his top 25 (#6 on Kiper’s board). You would expect Okung to receive considerable consideration from the Chiefs.

So if the Chiefs don’t go for an offensive tackle with their first pick, where do they go? I love Ndamukong Suh (#1 on Kiper’s board) from Nebraska, but I’d probably scream if the Chiefs picked another defensive lineman that early. The Chiefs certainly are not in the market for a quarterback, so that takes Jimmy Clausen (#4 on Kiper’s board) and Sam Bradford (#5 on Kiper’s board) out of the mix.

The name to watch is Eric Berry (#3 on Kiper’s board and #1 on Scouts Inc.’s board), the safety from Tennessee. He’s been compared to Ed Reed. He’s a playmaker. And while picking a safety at the top of the draft isn’t very sexy, the Chiefs need playmakers, and safety is an area of need.

In Kansas City, when our team is 3-9, it’s not too early to start thinking about the 2010 NFL draft. If the draft was held today, I believe the Chiefs would have the sixth pick in the draft. It’s almost impossible to trade out of a top five pick, so the Chiefs are probably best served by winning another game or two and staying out of the top five. This will open up more options for them to pick or trade down.

Biggest Needs
The Chiefs have a lot of needs, but none more glaring than the offensive line. (See my post here about our lack of picks for the offensive line the last several years.) It all begins up front. The Chiefs have trouble running the ball, protecting the quarterback, making first downs, scoring points, and sustaining drives. The Chiefs must upgrade the line. They have several serviceable parts. I’m not down on any particular lineman. If you can improve the line at a couple of positions, you’ll put the entire offense in a much better position to succeed.

We also have holes to fill at safety, running back, nickel back and wide receiver. And can use upgrades just about everywhere except our two kickers.

The Chiefs will likely be a bit more aggressive in free agency to fill some holes next year, but free agency is not the answer for building and sustaining a winning team. So assuming they do not find a starter for the offensive line in free agency, the Chiefs need to use two of their top four picks in the draft on offensive lineman. Remember that because of the Tony Gonzalez trade, the Chiefs have two picks in the second round. Which should give them three picks in the first 50 assuming that Atlanta’s second round pick will be somewhere in the middle of the round.

The unfortunate thing for the Chiefs is that this draft does not appear to be as top heavy with offensive tackles as the last two drafts. According to Scouts Inc., they have only two offensive lineman in their top 25: Russel Okung from Oklahoma State at #5 and Trent Williams from Oklahoma at #8. Mel Kiper lists Okung at #6 and Williams doesn’t even make his top 25 at this point. Lots will change on the draft boards before April.

At this point I’d hope that the Chiefs draft an offensive tackle in round one (hopefully Russell Okung is still on the board), and take a guard or center with one of their second round picks.

During the ’90s under Marty Schottenheimer, the Chiefs had dominating offensive and defensive lines. So what happened? I think if we look back at these last ten years, we get a pretty darn good glimpse at how the Chiefs have fallen. And why they can’t seem to get back up.

Defensive Line
Derrick Thomas. Neil Smith. Dan Saleuamua. Joe Phillips. As Kansas City fans we loved these guys. The Chiefs have repeatedly tried to replace them. Here are the players that the Chiefs have drafted in the money rounds (NFL draft rounds 1-3) since 2001 to play on the defensive line.

2001: Eric Downing (round 3)
2002: Ryan Sims (round 1), Eddie Freeman (round 2)
2004: Junior Siavii (round 2)
2006: Tamba Hali (round 1)
2007: Turk McBride (round 2), Tank Tyler (round 3)
2008: Glenn Dorsey (round 1)
2009: Tyson Jackson (round 1), Alex Magee (round 3)

That’s ten players selected in the early rounds to play defensive line during the last nine drafts. Several are out of football. And few have made significant contributions on the field in Kansas City or anywhere else for that matter. None were a greater bust than Ryan Sims, who the Chiefs traded up to grab.

Defensive linemen take several years to develop. It’s way too early to judge Dorsey, Jackson and Magee. Hali has been much better with the move to outside linebacker this year than I would have expected. And Dorsey may be starting to turn the corner. He has played well the last couple of weeks. There’s hope for a few of these guys.

Offensive Line
As the Chiefs continued to miss on defensive lineman, it caused a ripple affect through subsequent drafts. With every miss, the Chiefs had to try again. Other positions suffered. And none were ignored as greatly as the offensive line.

During the Vermeil years, the Chiefs were able to build what may have been one of the finest offensive lines in NFL history, featuring veterans Willie Roaf, Will Shields and Brian Waters. But because their line was so good and so dependable, the team felt little urgency to draft and develop young offensive lineman. Here’s the list of offensive lineman taken in rounds 1-3 since 2001.

2008: Branden Albert (round 1)

That’s it. Matter of fact, you have to go back to 1999 when the Chiefs drafted John Tait to find the last offensive lineman chosen by the Chiefs in one of these early rounds. And the Chiefs allowed Tait to leave in free agency after the 2003 season.

The Future
Pioli and Haley have been criticized for not rebuilding the Chiefs offensive line this year. And it’s apparent that the offensive line is their greatest weakness. But it’s important to understand that the Chiefs weren’t just bad. They were really bad and really deficient of talent when Pioli got here. This is not a one year project. Defensive linemen take time to develop. And a good offensive lineman can contribute more quickly. They take less time to develop. I fully expect the Chiefs to address their offensive line problems in the next two drafts. And the hope would be that by 2011 the defensive linemen have developed, and we’ve hit on some good offensive linemen.