Did Matt Cassel run over your dog or something? Listening to talk radio and reading the blogs, I continue to be surprised at how down the KC fans are on Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Let’s try to put this into a little perspective. It was only a year and a half ago that ESPN was speculating that the Patriots might be forced to cut Tom Brady and keep Cassel for the betterment of the future of their team. And not only did new general manager Scott Pioli and the Chiefs want Cassel as their quarterback of the future, Denver’s new head coach Josh McDaniels (who had been Cassel’s offensive coordinator in New England) alienated quarterback Jay Cutler when he made a play to acquire Cassel from the Patriots.

Here are some facts to digest.

1. Cassel is still a very inexperienced quarterback. He played very little in college at USC, and basically has two years under his belt in the pros. He will suffer threw some growing pains. He takes too many sacks. And he’s a little slow through his progressions. He seems to be at his best in the hurry up offense when he’s more in rhythm with the passing game. There’s no reason to think that he won’t improve.

2. Last year Cassel was traded to KC and learned Chan Gailey’s offense during the offseason, only for Gailey to be fired right before the season began. Head coach Todd Haley completely revamped the offense WHILE Cassel was on the sidelines suffering through a preseason injury. Cassel and the rest of the offense started off very slowly last year as they attempted to digest and implement a new scheme.

3. The offensive line started poorly last year. They allowed 37 sacks in the first ten games (3.7/game). But over the last six games, they only allowed eight sacks (1.3/game). It would have been tough for any quarterback to be productive with that kind of pressure.

4. And not only was the offensive line playing poorly, Cassel had no help on offense. Larry Johnson was awful. The receivers dropped more balls than any other team in the league. The Chiefs were picking up every wide receiver available looking for some type of spark or consistency. It wasn’t until late in the season when Jamaal Charles got his shot to run the ball, and wide receiver Chris Chambers came onboard, that the Chiefs started to find some offensive production.

Now how about some historical perspective? In general, most quarterbacks struggle their first year with a new team. Cassel’s struggles last year should have been anticipated. Trent Green was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league for several years, but have you all forgotten how bad he was in his first year in KC? Jason Whitlock renamed him Tr-INT. Here are Green’s stats from his first year in KC:

Completion Percentage: 56.6
TDs: 17
INTs: 24
Yards: 3,783
QB Rating: 71.1

Now what were Cassel’s stats last year?

Completion Percentage: 55.0
TDs: 16
INTs: 16
Yards: 2,924
QB Rating: 69.6

Pretty similar stats. Green played one more game than Cassel, and was in a pass happy offense. Green also played behind a better offensive line, and had Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez at his disposal.

Now let’s look at Green’s numbers from year two:

Completion Percentage: 61.1
TDs: 26
INTs: 13
Yards: 3,690
QB Rating: 92.6

Will Cassel make that same leap that Green made in his second year in Kansas City? I don’t know. I’m not predicting that Cassel will be a Pro Bowl quarterback. But I see the tools. I like his leadership and mentality. His accuracy looks better this year already. And he looks like he’s got a pretty good supporting cast with an improved offensive line, and legitimate weapons with Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers and Tony Moeaki. Let’s give this guy an opportunity to show what he can do before we run him out of town.

I am so ready for football. And with the Chiefs this year, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that this team is turning things around. As we compare this team to last year’s team, don’t just look at how they finished the season, but think about where they were a year ago today. The transformation is significant.

1. Coaching Staff: The Chiefs had wanted to hire Romeo Crennel a year ago to lead the defense, but the timing just wasn’t right. The Chiefs settled for Clancy Pendergast as defensive coordinator. Haley retained offensive coordinator Chan Gailey from Herm’s staff, but then fired him right before the season began. Enter 2010 where the Chiefs have added Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weis and Emmitt Thomas, and the Chiefs now have one of the most highly regarded and accomplished staffs in the NFL.

2. Matt Cassel: If you follow the NFL closely, you’ll realize that typically when a quarterback changes teams, he struggles in his first year with his new team. In 2009 Cassel threw for almost 3,000 yards with 16TDs and 16 INTs. A mediocre season for an NFL quarterback. But take into account that the entire offense was learning a new system on the fly as the season began, the offensive line allowed a ton of sacks early in the season, and the team received disappointing seasons from their primary weapons in Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe.

Cassel has proven that he’s as tough as anybody out there. He seems to have the leadership qualities you’d want from your quarterback. What can we expect from Cassel this year? With Weis at the helm, new offensive toys, and a year in Kansas City, I think we should expect 3,500 yards passing, and hopefully close to a 2-to-1 TD to INT ratio. The jury is still out on Cassel, but I think he’s got the tools to be a competent starting QB in the league. Is that good enough? We’ll soon see.

3. Offensive Weapons: As the season began last year, the two primary weapons on offense were Larry Johnson and Dwayne Bowe. Johnson was a shell of his former self. And as the offensive line struggled, Johnson could barely find his way back to the line of scrimmage. Fans had hoped for a breakout season from Bowe, but were disappointed as he dropped ball after ball.

We all know the story now, but when Johnson was released, the offense came alive under speedster Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs picked up Chris Chambers midway through the season to anchor their receiving core. And during the off season, the Chiefs added running back Thomas Jones and rookies Dexter McCluster and tight end Tony Moeaki. Hopefully Dwayne Bowe can relax knowing that he’s now just a piece of the offense and will not be leaned upon to be the star. Bowe has tons of potential, but whether he develops into a consistent player or not, the Chiefs are much further along than they were a year ago today.

4. Offensive Line: Once the team settled in with five consistent starters, the line play improved last year. In the first 10 games of the season, the line gave up 37 sacks (3.7 per game). During the last six games, the line gave up only eight sacks (1.3 per game). In the first half of the season, the line couldn’t open a hole for Johnson. For the last half of the season, Jamaal Charles gained more yards than any back in the league except Chris Johnson. Much of that was due to the speed and elusiveness of Charles. But it was also due to the improved play of the offensive line.

During the off season, the Chiefs added veteran center Casey Wiegmann and guard Ryan Lilja. Both are a bit undersized, but experienced. And they drafted Jon Asamoah, who is capable of playing at center or guard. There will now be some competition along the line. They should be better this year.

5. Team Speed: The Chiefs have been painfully slow the last few years. General Manager Scott Pioli has focused on increasing the team’s speed, and I think in particular this will be obvious on special teams.

6. Happy Returns: The Chiefs haven’t had a legitimate threat on kick and punt returns since Dante Hall. Jamaal Charles gave the team a bit of a spark last year, but he’s too valuable on offense to risk on special teams. Enter rookies Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas. Both have speed and elusiveness, and should supply a spark to special teams. This will be an interesting battle during the preseason.

7. Eric Berry: You hate to heap too much pressure on any rookie but safeties are not typically taken so early in the draft. There are a handful of safeties who can change the game. Troy Polamula (when healthy). Bob Sanders (when healthy). Ed Reed. Brian Dawkins, though he’s at the end of his career. The Chiefs think they’ve drafted the next great safety. He will certainly add some explosiveness to the defense compared to the departed Mike Brown.

8. Ryan Succop: Last year, kicker Ryan Succop  was Mr. Irrelevant as the last player taken in the NFL draft. But he proved to have the leg and mentality it takes to kick in the NFL. What was a big question mark last year appears now to be a position of strength.

9. Todd Haley: Haley made a lot of mistakes last year, but it was his first year as a head coach, and he certainly was given a team with a lot of holes. He really seems quite a bit more at ease this year. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the same fiery temper, but I’m OK with that. So long as he only loses his temper when it serves a larger purpose of getting this team over the next hurdle. The jury is still out on Haley as well, but I’m optimistic that he’s gotten this team headed in the right direction.

10. Year Two: The Chiefs’ leadership is young. Owner Clark Hunt, general manager Scott Pioli and head coach Todd Haley form the nucleus of the future of the team. This is the year we should start to get a glimpse of what they’re attempting to build.

I don’t expect the Chiefs to make the playoffs this year, but there are many reasons to believe they’ll be improved. And that’s good enough for today.

Certainly nobody was taken by surprise, were they? The Royals are atrocious. Kansas City is 12-23. Only one team in baseball has a worse record than the Royals — The Baltimore Orioles. Sooner or later, a change had to be made.

Was Trey Hillman to blame? Yes. And no.

I see a lot of parallels between Trey Hillman and the position the Chiefs found themselves in with head coach Herm Edwards. Edwards is a good man, and a decent coach. Nobody could have coached the Chiefs to a winning record in ‘07 or ‘08. They just didn’t have enough talent on the team. But it was also clear that Edwards had some limitations as head coach. While the losing wasn’t his fault, it was also clear that Edwards was not a good enough coach to ever lead the team, given the right talent, to the promised land. Edwards’ flaws had been exposed.

I think that Royals’ general manager Dayton Moore looked at Hillman this week and came to the same conclusion. Hillman is a good man. The type of guy you root for in sports. The losing isn’t really Trey’s fault. There’s just not enough talent on the major league club to produce significantly more wins. But we’ve seen enough warts on Hillman to know he’s not the manager we’d hoped. Hillman doesn’t have a good enough feel for the game, or rapport with his players, to lead the Royals out of this mess.

I had already been thinking about writing a post about the Royals this week. A post to discuss some patience with the process. When Dayton Moore accepted the job four years ago as general manager, it’s hard to describe what a mess the Royals were in. And not just the major league ball club. Their minor league system was just as bad and underfunded as the major league ball club. By all accounts, the minor league system has taken some significant steps forward. Draft picks are starting to produce in the minors, but this is really a long-term project. Royals fans don’t want to hear it, but fixing the minor league system is realistically a five to ten-year process. And the Royals are just four years in. It may still be a few years of misery before the Royals begin to win.

Does this excuse the losses? Kind of. But we’ve also seen Moore make some bad mistakes with the big league club. His failure to fix the bullpen this year is what has hampered the current team the most. With a decent bullpen, the Royals have several more wins, and are at least within spitting distance of .500. And Trey Hillman is still the manager.

On a side note, I really enjoy the Star’s Sam Mellinger and his coverage of the Royals. Sam knows baseball. Here’s a link to his story on Hillman. It’s a good read.

Lots of little things going on with our local teams. So let’s dig in.

Jones to Announce College on Friday
The Jayhawks appear to be in the middle of the Terrence Jones sweepstakes. Jones, the 13th ranked high school basketball player by Rivals.com, plans to announce his college choice on Friday. Jones is friends with KU’s other recent recruit Josh Selby, Rival.com’s 4th rated high school player. Selby was openly recruiting Jones a couple weeks ago at the Jordon Brand Classic. Jones made his official recruiting trip to Lawrence this last weekend. A commitment from Jones would give the Jayhawks a top five recruiting class, and likely launch them back into the preseason top ten.

Henderson to Visit Chiefs, Then Not So Much
John Henderson, the huge defensive tackle who was recently released by the Jacksonville Jaguars, announced on 610 Sports the other day that he was planning a visit to the Chiefs this week. The news was picked up by other media outlets, only later to be proclaimed inaccurate. It appears that Henderson is not headed to KC at this point in time. Makes you wonder how these things happen, though we’ll never know for sure.

Chiefs Draft
Now having had a week to reflect on what the Chiefs accomplished in the draft, I think it’s clear they drafted some needs that were not the same needs the experts expected. But needs nonetheless.

1. Safety was one area of need that everybody agreed the Chiefs needed to fill, and they did so with Eric Berry. Opinions differ on whether or not you should ever draft a safety this high. But if Berry becomes a ten year starter for the Chiefs, I don’t think anybody will be complaining. Personally, I think this was a pretty safe pick. At worst he’ll be an improvement over what we’ve had. And at best he’ll be a star.

2. The Chiefs had no legitimate candidates for kickoff and punt returns. You can’t risk your starting running back, Jamaal Charles, in the return game. Now they have two legitimate return threats with Dexter McCluster and Javier Arenas. Todd Haley referred to their need for a returner as a “must” and not a “need”. Second hole in roster filled.

3. Haley said they had McCluster rated as one of the top running backs AND one of the top wide receivers in the draft. Reports out of Philadelphia were that the Eagles were planning to draft McCluster high in the second round. The Chiefs had no clear option for a slot receiver, and badly needed to infuse some speed into their receiving corp. Accomplished.The Chiefs will find creative ways to get McCluster on the field. I expect him to play a lot.

4. Pioli talked about the number of plays that the defense lines up in the nickel, and that league wide the average is around 55%. Last year our nickel corners were awful. Arenas will project to play in the nickel, and has a good skill set to cover in the slot. Another hole filled.

And in general, Pioli and Haley both talked about the the Chiefs lack of team speed. These three guys improve our speed considerably. So the top three picks filled what the Chiefs believed to be their four biggest holes in their roster.

Royals
The Royals are tough to watch right now. They’ve stumbled out of the shoot with an 8-13 record, and now will be playing the Rays in a four game series. The Rays are one of the hottest teams in baseball with a record of 16-5.

What’s amazing is that the Royals have played well offensively, their defense is improved, and other than Gil Meche, the starting pitching has been consistently good. But their bullpen is the WORST in the league. The Royals have already amassed eight blown saves from their bullpen, and only one of those was from the closer, Joakim Soria. If the Royals pitch a bit better out of the pen, and blow only half of those games, they’re now 12-9, and KC is feeling good about themselves. Instead, we all cringe every time a reliever enters the game.

How do you fix this? I’m not sure it’s fixable right now. Hopefully a couple guys will come around and pitch better. But if this continues, the Royals will need to decide if they want to call up some of their younger players in the minors who may not be ready for the big leagues. At least then you’d be developing your younger pitchers instead of watching this group of veterans undermine everything else this team is doing right.

I think I’m going to be in the minority on this, but I love what the Chiefs are doing in the draft. The Chiefs have drafted five players so far, and have filled some gaping holes in their roster. And they’ve filled them with good football players and great character guys. All five were team captains with outstanding personal resumes, as well as football resumes.

Safety: Last year the Chiefs were continually burned deep. Mike Brown could no longer cover wide receivers. And Jon McGraw is a fine special teams player, but is not a starting safety. The Chiefs had nobody who should start opposite Jarrad Page. And the Chiefs draft Eric Berry, an outstanding football player and outstanding athlete. He’s graded as one of the best safeties to ever be drafted. We’ll see how it translates to the NFL, but the expectation is that Berry will be a ten year starter, and make his way to a few Pro Bowls.

Slot Receiver: The Chiefs have competent starting receivers with Chris Chambers and Dwayne Bowe, but no clear choice to line up in the slot. So they draft Dexter McCluster near the top of round two. He was listed as a running back which left me scratching my head over the selection, but the Chiefs see him as a slot receiver. For Ole Miss, McCluster played running back, wide receiver and ran the “wildcat” formation as the quarterback. He was incredibly productive. He’s versatile. He’s fast. And the  Chiefs think they’ve found their “Wes Welker” with McCluster. He’s the size of Dante Hall, and could also impact the return game. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis will find ways to get McCluster on the field.

Nickel Corner: Though it wasn’t high on our radar, it should have been. The Chiefs tried a number of guys last year in the nickel. All were torched. Enter the Chiefs second second round pick Javier Arenas. At Alabama, Arenas was a fine corner back. He’s fast. He’s versatile. A good tackler. And an effective blitzer. Like McCluster, he’s not very big. But he has a good skill set to play the nickel. He’s tough and smart. And he was one of the premier return men in the country.

Kick and Punt Returner: Last year Jamaal Charles was pretty effective on kick returns, but the Chiefs never found a threat to return punts. And once Charles emerged as the starting running back, the Chiefs needed to look elsewhere for kick returns. McCluster will certainly get a chance to show what he can do, and looks like he offers similar abilities to a Dante Hall or Darren Sproles. And did I mention that Arenas was one of the premier return men in the country? It seems that this problem has been solved.

Offensive Line: Most of us had wanted the Chiefs to draft an offensive tackle. It appears the Chiefs are pretty happy with Branden Albert and Ryan O’Callaghan. Both played better as the season progressed last year. Early in the third round, the Chiefs picked offensive guard Jon Asamoah, who was rated by ESPN as the second best guard in the draft. Asamoah is another fine player and outstanding person. And one of the things the Chiefs liked best about him is his versatility. Though he played guard in college, he often practiced at center. Asamoah may not play much as a rookie, but he adds quality depth. And as Waters and Wiegmann are approaching the end of their careers, he will eventually get the opportunity to start. My guess is that it will be sooner rather than later. If he doesn’t crack the lineup this year, I bet he starts in 2011.

Tight End: This is another position the Chiefs struggled with last year. Early on the Chiefs featured Sean Ryan, but then phased him out as the season progressed. The Chiefs picked up Leonard Pope, who failed to distinguish himself. And Brad Cottam made a few plays before ending his season with an injury. So the Chiefs move up to the bottom of the third round to draft Tony Moeaki from Iowa. He’s big. He can catch the ball. And he knows how to block. He had a few injuries early in his career at Iowa, but started 10 games as a senior. Moeaki will likely compete with Cottam for the starting job at tight end. And my guess is that Moeaki will play a lot this year.

So what have we learned about the Chiefs this week?

1. The Chiefs like Matt Cassel. Several experts kept expecting the Chiefs to draft Jimmy Clausen. This never made sense to me. And the Chiefs obviously had the opportunity to draft Clausen later in the draft where he would have been a good value — if you wanted a quarterback.

2. The Chiefs viewed their areas of need differently than the fans and the experts. Everyone agreed that the Chiefs needed a safety. But the experts also felt like the Chiefs needed an offensive tackle, a nose tackle and linebackers. The Chiefs appear more comfortable with the players they have at these positions than we expected.

3. General Manager Scott Pioli wants high character guys. Jason Whitlock wrote a nice piece in the Star today about Pioli’s draft picks. All of these draft picks were leaders on and off the field in college.

4. And I think in general, though Pioli and Haley continue to say they need to upgrade the talent at a lot of positions, I think this draft shows that they like their players more than I expected. They didn’t spend two picks in the second round looking for immediate starters. Instead they picked role players who filled some holes. Time will tell if they’re right.

It wasn’t my prediction, but I’m very pleased with the result. Safety Eric Berry is a high-quality player and a high-character kid. I had mentioned Berry in a post as a possible draft choice for the Chiefs back in December. Several great stories on Berry in the Kansas City Star this morning outlining some of his personal and football accomplishments. Coming out of high school Berry was ranked as the number one defensive back by Rivals.com and Scout.com, and carried a 3.75 GPA. He was an immediate starter at Tennessee and started every game. In 39 career games he was flagged for one penalty — and that was his freshman year. Berry fills the biggest hole on the Chiefs roster. When the Chiefs decided not to pursue any of the free agent safeties on the market, I guess it should have been clear to us then that Berry was already high on the Chiefs radar. Good job Pioli. I think Berry will be a great Chief and ambassador to our community.

Rounds Two and Three
The Chiefs have three picks tonight in rounds two and three — picks 36, 50 and 68. Still some first round talent on the board. ESPN.com in their updated mock draft for these two rounds is predicting that the Chiefs will draft:

#36: OT Rodger Saffold from Indiana
#50: DT Terrence Cody from Alabama
#68: TE Dennis Pita from BYU

I’d be good with the Chiefs getting an offensive lineman and a nose tackle tonight. I’m not sure that Cody will last till the middle of the second round, and might be worth taking with the Chiefs first pick tonight. I also really like OLB Sergio Kindle from Texas, and would not be disappointed to see the Chiefs grab him at the top of round two. So if the Chiefs go defense with their first pick tonight (Kindle or Cody), then you’d think they might look to the offensive line with their next pick. If they don’t like the available tackles, two names to watch are OG Jon Asamoah (6-4, 305) from Illinois and OG Vladmir Ducasse (6-4, 332) from Massachusetts. They are the two top-rated interior linemen still on the board.

Other Thoughts on Round One
Overall I thought most of the teams made picks that made sense given what was on the board, and each team’s needs. But I can’t even imagine what the Jaguars were thinking drafting DT Tyson Alualu at number ten, or what the Broncos saw in Tim Tebow to take him at 25. Tebow is the type of kid you’d like to root for (though I’ll never root for Denver). I just don’t see him ever as a great NFL quarterback. And why would you ever draft a quarterback in the first round unless you were CONVINCED that he’d make a great NFL quarterback? We’ll see what happens, but I’m not sold that Denver and their staff know what they’re doing.

My favorite move of the night? Probably the Chargers jumping up to draft RB Ryan Mathews. It was aggressive. And when you already have a lot of talent like San Diego, but a glaring hole at an important position like running back, you need to go get your guy.

Big 12 Rocked the House
And congrats to the Big 12. Wow. The top four picks and five of the top six all coming out of the Big 12. I will say that I was very impressed with both Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy. They were humble, polite and well spoken. Both came across as very sincere and nice young men.

A new rumor floating online has the Chiefs and 49ers possibly swapping picks. The 49ers have two picks in the first round — number 13 and number 17 — and may want to trade up to draft QB Jimmy Clausen. From ESPN.com: “One possibility that jumps right out at us is the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners have two picks in the teens, are enamored with Clausen and have a new man at the head of the front office who might be looking to make a signature transaction. Of course, it might be more logical for the Niners to hang on to both of those picks because they’ll likely be able to get two starters instead of one, and Clausen is considered a risky pick by some. But Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News is on board with this suggestion. He even suggests that the Niners might be able to get a second-rounder back from the Chiefs. That would mean the Niners would pick at No. 5, No. 36 and No. 49, with the Chiefs picking at No. 13, No. 17 and No. 50 (from Atlanta from last year’s Tony Gonzalez deal). On the surface, this seems to make some sense for both sides, since the Niners will get Clausen (if they do want him that badly), and the Chiefs will be able to plug two of their many holes with impact players drafted in the teens.”

The draft starts in a couple days. I’m actually enthused about the new format. Round one Thursday night. Rounds two and three on Friday night. And the remaining four rounds on Saturday. The Chiefs have eight picks: one in the first, two in the second, one in the third, one in the fourth, and three in the fifth.

Most mock drafts have the Chiefs picking an offensive tackle (Okung, Williams or Bulaga) or safety Eric Berry with their first pick. A few, including my own mock draft, have the Chiefs ending up with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. I’d be OK with any of these picks. And I’d be even better if they could move down a few slots and still get Berry or one of the offensive tackles.

Top priorities for the Chiefs: improve their offensive line (potential starter or add depth / future starter), improve their defensive line (in particular a true nose tackle), draft a starting safety, and find a kick returner. If they can do these four things, the draft will prove to be successful.

This is an exercise in futility only. My first time doing a mock draft. And if I’m correct on more than a dozen picks I’ll be shocked! This assumes no trades, though there’s been a lot of speculation that we could see more trades than normal this year.

St. Louis Rams (1 – QB Sam Bradford): I can’t imagine the Rams doing anything else. They’ve cut QB Marc Bulger, and all signs point to Bradford.

Detroit Lions (2 – OT Russell Okung): Most mock drafts have the Lions taking DT Ndamukong Suh. But this could shake up a few draft boards early. Lions need to protect their young QB and pick the best OT in the draft.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 – DT Gerald McCoy): Bucs faced with a tough choice between Suh and McCoy, but choose McCoy as a better fit for their defense.

Washington Redskins (4 – OT Trent Williams): The Redskins are disappointed that Okung is off the board and take Williams. Shanahan needs to protect QB McNabb and must replace the retired LOT Chris Samuels.

Kansas City Chiefs (5 – DT Ndamukong Suh): Chiefs have no choice but to draft Suh, the top player on their board. They certainly won’t reach for the third best OT in the draft. And they won’t take safety Eric Berry over Suh. Here’s hoping that the Chiefs can trade down with both Suh and Clausen still on the board.

Seattle Seahawks (6 – S Eric Berry): Seahawks happy to see Berry fall to them. Berry will be an impact player.

Cleveland Browns (7 – Jimmy Clausen): Browns need to solve their problems at quarterback, and I can’t imagine they believe that Jake Delhomme is a long-term answer. Clausen would be a good fit in Cleveland.

Oakland Raiders (8 – OT Bryan Bulaga): Never to be deterred by potential character issues, Raiders draft the best OT on the board. That makes three OTs in the top 10.

Buffalo Bills (9 – NT Dan Williams): Bills had hoped for Clausen, but settle to fill a hole on their defensive line as they move to the 3-4 defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars (10 -DE Derrick Morgan): I could picture the Jags going in many directions here with the tenth pick. But at this point I don’t have a single pass rusher coming off the board yet. Morgan would help Jacksonville and their anemic pass rush.

Denver Broncos (11 – WR Dez Bryant): After trading WR Brandon Marshall, the Broncos have a hole to fill, and Bryant is still on the board.

Miami Dolphins (12 – DE/OLB Sergio Kindle): The Dolphins need to go defense, and improve their pass rush. They decide to choose Kindle over Pierre-Paul.

San Francisco 49ers (13 – CB Joe Haden): The 49ers are happy to see the best CB in the draft still on the board at number 13.

Seattle Seahawks (14 – RB C.J. Spiller): Having gone defense with their first pick, the Seahawks move to offense and take the dynamic Spiller.

New York Giants (15 – ILB Rolando McClain): The best inside LB in the draft and a fiery leader. A good fit with the Giants.

Tennessee Titans (16 – DE Jason Pierre-Paul): This could prove to be one of the steals of the draft. Fits in well with the Titans, and could become a sack machine.

San Francisco 49ers (17 – OT Anthony Davis): If Jimmy Clausen falls, I could picture the 49ers taking him here. But with Clausen off the board, 49ers add Davis to their offensive line.

Pittsburgh Steelers (18 – C/G Maukice Pouncey): Steelers need to improve their offensive line, and Pouncey just looks like a great fit here.

Atlanta Falcons (19 – OLB Sean Weatherspoon): I like Weatherspoon. He’s got a chance to be a real impact player in the NFL. Another option here would be DE/OLB Brandon Graham.

Houston Texans (20 – CB Kyle Wilson): Texans need to replace CB Dunta Robinson, and Wilson is a decent value here.

Cincinnati Bengals (21 – TE Jermaine Gresham): If WR Dez Bryant is still on the board, he’s the pick here. But instead the Bengals take the best TE in the draft. A good weapon in the passing game for Carson Palmer.

New England Patriots (22 – DT Jason Odrick): Pats have a history of drafting defensive linemen in the first round, and they still need to replace Richard Seymour.

Green Bay Packers (23 – G Mike Iupati): Packers need to upgrade the offensive line, and Iupai is best lineman on the board.

Philadelphia Eagles (24 – S Earl Thomas): Eagles go with the best player still on the board. Thomas could go considerably higher. Some mock drafts have him in the top 10.

Baltimore Ravens (25 – WR Demaryius Thomas): A big, physical home run threat, Thomas will help the Ravens passing game.

Arizona Cardinals (26 – OT Charles Brown): The run on OTs continue as the Cards take the best offensive lineman on the board.

Dallas Cowboys (27 – S Taylor Mays): Disappointed that they’ve missed out on all of the top OTs, Cowboys grab the top safety on the board.

San Diego Chargers (28 – DT Terrence Cody): Cody will be a great fit in the middle of their defensive line. This pick just makes too much sense not to happen.

New York Jets (29 – DE Everson Griffen): Another defensive weapon for Rex Ryan, Griffen is a fantastic athlete. Or they could go with Brandon Graham here.

Minnesota Vikings (30 – CB Kareem Jackson): Many have Jackson going much higher in the draft. The Vikings will be happy to see him still on the board.

Indianapolis Colts (31 – OLB Brandon Graham): Colts take best player still on the board. Graham could go much higher than this.

New Orleans Saints (32 – OLB Jerry Hughes): The Saints need to get more pressure on the QB, and Hughes could be a playmaker.

The draft is only three weeks away, and I don’t think I’m any closer to guessing at what the Chiefs will pick than I was three months ago. So instead we’ll look at a few possible scenarios, and a few areas of need. The Chiefs have done a good job in free agency plugging a few holes with Thomas Jones, Ryan Lilja, Casey Wiegmann, Shaun Smith and Jerheme Urban. And they’ve resigned Chris Chambers, Derrick Johnson and Mike Vrabel. What this has done is that it’s put the Chiefs in a position where they don’t have to draft any one area of need. They can focus on taking the best player available.

Top Five Pick
It’s almost impossible to trade out of a top five pick, so for the most part we’ll assume the Chiefs are stuck with their pick. Typically top five picks are reserved for players at premium positions: quarterbacks, offensive tackles, pass rushers (defensive ends / 3-4 outside linebackers), and possibly star cornerbacks and defensive tackles. Occasionally you might get a running back or a wide receiver that jumps to the top of the draft, but it seems that in recent years these positions have slipped further down the draft boards. Typically not taken in the top five are safeties, guards, centers, inside linebackers and tight ends.

I only see one scenario where the Chiefs could trade their pick, and that’s if quarterback Jimmy Clausen is still on the board. Behind the Chiefs are several teams that have a need at quarterback including Seattle, Cleveland, Oakland and Buffalo. If the Browns or the Bills want Clausen, and are concerned that the Seahawks might grab him with the sixth pick  in the draft, then possibly the Chiefs will have an opportunity to trade down. Other than that, it won’t happen.

Best Player Available vs Area of Need
Last year the Chiefs surprised us all by reaching for defensive end Tyson Jackson. I don’t expect the same kind of reach this year. And good news for the Chiefs is that they have needs that match up well with premium positions, and the top players on the board.

Defensive Tackle: According to Mel Kiper’s Big Board, he’s got Ndamukon Suh and Gerald McCoy ranked as the top two players in the draft. Most mock drafts have Suh and McCoy off the board by the time the Chiefs pick at number five, but if one of them would happen to fall, the Chiefs will be faced with a tough choice. The Chiefs have drafted a lot of defensive linemen in recent years, but still have a hole in the middle of their line. I think they’ll both be gone by the time the Chiefs pick.

Quarterback: Kiper has Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford rated in his top five. In a way this is great news for the Chiefs. The Chiefs don’t need a quarterback, but several teams drafting in the top ten could use a quarterback. Bradford is likely to go number one to the Rams. Clausen could potentially go to Washington at number four.

Offensive Tackle: This is the position most Chiefs fans see as the biggest area of need. Picking a top offensive tackle would allow the Chiefs to move Branden Albert to right tackle, and could dramatically strengthen their offensive line. There are several offensive tackles ranked highly among the experts including Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Bryan Bulaga and Anthony Davis.

Pass Rusher: I’m a bit surprised there hasn’t been more talk about the Chiefs taking a pass rusher in the draft. Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul are two of the best defensive ends in the draft. Pierre-Paul is 6-5 and 262, and I would think could transition to an outside linebacker in the 3-4 defense. He would give the Chiefs another pass rusher, and could rotate with Vrabel and Hali, and eventually replace Vrabel in the starting lineup.

Safety: Typically safeties aren’t taken in the top five, but most experts agree that Eric Berry is a special talent, and this would certainly qualify as an area of need for the Chiefs. I wouldn’t be disappointed at all to see Berry in Kansas City.

Two other names that have popped up for the Chiefs are wide receiver Dez Bryant and linebacker Rolando McClain. I’d be surprised by either pick. These are not premium positions, and they aren’t glaring needs for the Chiefs.

Summary
If Suh or McCoy falls, I think the Chiefs would have to give this serious consideration. But I think that’s unlikely. It’s hard to know how the Chiefs value the safety position, and whether or not they’d take a safety this high in the draft.

Experts: Eric Berry seems to be the pick from many experts, including Kiper and Todd McShay.
My prediction: Offensive tackle Russell Okung
My sleeper pick: Jason Pierre-Paul