Final Thoughts Election 2012

November 1st, 2012 by Lee Eldridge

This is likely to be my final post before the election on Tuesday. I am looking forward to the end. Or the beginning.

Mitt RomneyState of the Polls
We’ll have an answer on Tuesday about the polls with the only poll that really matters. In case you’ve missed it, there’s been a considerable disturbance in the force. And I’m not talking about Disney buying Lucasfilm. Pollsters and pundits have fallen into one of two camps, and it’s all about voter turnout and party ID. In 2008, democrats outvoted republicans by seven points and swept President Obama into office, along with significant majorities in Congress. In 2010, democrats and republicans voted evenly, and the GOP was swept into Congress, making huge gains in the House, and modest gains in the Senate.

So what will the turnout be in 2012? My guess has been somewhere in the middle, probably two to three points favoring the democrats. Many of the state polls from companies such as Marist and Quinnipiac continue to show democrats with equal or even greater turnout than 2008. This makes little sense to me. Based off of these polls, the left’s polling guru Nate Silver is predicting a 79% chance that Obama will win the election, and take 300 electoral votes in the process. Those on the right question the polls and cite the underlying numbers. The GOP is more enthusiastic about this election, and independents have swung from Obama to Romney in fairly significant numbers. A few of the pollsters such as Gallup and Rasmussen are expecting a turnout that more resembles 2010, or possibly even a republican advantage.

One more anomaly I’ve seen in the polls, then we’ll move on. Polling likely voters is more predictive than polling registered voters. And pollsters attempt to determine if a person is a likely voter, or just a registered voter. On some of theses state polls, they’re filtering out very few voters — they’re considering 96-99% of the registered voters to be likely voters. Enthusiasm for the election may be high, but that’s just ridiculous.

President ObamaEarly Voting
In 2008, Obama crushed McCain in early voting by nearly 20 points. And this was to be one of Obama’s great strengths against Romney. The numbers don’t reflect that. Gallup came out with an article a couple days ago that Romney is beating Obama in early voting 52-46. And if you don’t believe Gallup, Pew came out with similar numbers with Romney ahead 50-43 among early voters. That’s a very bad sign for the President.

The Electoral College
Since the election of 2000 when Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the election, many on the left have wanted to dump the electoral college in favor of the popular vote. There certainly is a scenario where Romney could win the popular vote, lose Ohio, and lose the election. Will these same people scream about the unfairness of the electoral college? Will they claim Obama to be an illegitimate President like they did Bush? My guess is no.

Wednesday Excuses
If Obama loses, what excuses will be made? I wrote an article two months ago detailing why it will be difficult for Obama to win. But for months, some on the far left have set the table full of excuses ready to be used.

Voter Suppression: If you don’t think some on the left will use this as an explanation for Obama’s loss, think again. MoveOn.org has already released a web ad to this point. You can watch it here. May not be appropriate to watch this in an office or around children.

Money: I understand the frustration of those wanting campaign finance reform. There’s a lot of money in politics. And where there’s money, there’s corruption. A few months ago we were seeing articles from the mainstream media about the huge amounts of money raised by Romney and the Super PACs. But with Obama and the democrats raising $181 million in September, it’s difficult to make an argument that Obama didn’t have enough money to compete. And for the most part, these stories have disappeared. In 2008, Obama outraised and outspent McCain by a significant margin. Is that why he won the election? No. Obama was the better candidate, and positioned himself as the agent of change. (Which is what Romney is doing to Obama this time around.)

Racism: I’ve made this point before, and I’ll make it again. There’s a group on the left who believe that if you oppose the President, you must be racist. I’m a fiscal conservative. I oppose the President on many issues because I’m a fiscal conservative, and he’s not. You would think that since the President won by a significant margin in ’08 that this argument would go away. But it hasn’t. If Obama loses, it will be because moderates and independents who voted for him four years ago changed their vote this time around.

Prediction
I see nothing to change my mind about my prediction from August. I still believe Romney will win 52-47, and win the electoral college.

What’s Next?
And even though I believe that Romney will win, and that he’s the right choice, President Obama easily could have won this election. And if he loses, next week I’ll tell you how.

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8 Responses to “Final Thoughts Election 2012”

  1. Eric Fritz Says:

    Lee, I agree with on many levels. I am not a Romney fan because I feel that most on the right are too far right as the left continues it’s extreme move to the left. Romney is simply the less of 2 evils. I do think it will be a closer face than you have predicted. Cheers

  2. John 313 Says:

    Im sure you would vote for Brownback for President if you could. Youre voting for a return to the 50s my friend. Lets see, Bloomberg, Cuban, Buffet and Gates all are for Obama..so apparently not all business geniuses think your champion for the rich is the answer for America.

    I dont think racism or voter suppression is the main reason if Obama loses. Though your party is full of racists, and gay haters and does engage in widespread vote stealing and voter intimidation. Is that even debatable? Not so on either count with the democrats. I can be proud of that.

    No, if Obama loses, it will be because there are a hell of a lot of stupid people that live in this country.

  3. Lee Eldridge Says:

    Eric, my mom used to make comments about voting for the lesser of two evils, and part of me always thought that was kind of a cop out. Until 2008 when I was faced with Obama and McCain. It’s the first time I almost didn’t vote.

    For me, the hope is probably that the dems maintain control of the Senate in order to keep the GOP from pushing through a socially conservative agenda. And hoping against hope the two parties can work together and pass meaningful tax reform, regulatory reform, entitlement reform and a budget that gets us to a balanced budget in a reasonable amount of time.

    Or that if somehow the GOP takes the Senate, that they stay focused on fiscal issues and don’t get derailed by social issues.

    I’m not holding my breath.

  4. Frank Says:

    How mean-spirited, John313. Your posts are so very personal. Is it the existence of Lee, or the existence of this blog that makes you lash out so much? Hope you have a great day, and praying that you find peace.

  5. Lee Eldridge Says:

    Hey Frank, welcome back. John makes huge, sweeping assumptions about me. He obviously doesn’t know me. I don’t take it personally. One of my best friends whom I’ve known for about 40 years is extremely liberal. And even he calls people like John the hysterical left.

  6. John 313 Says:

    I’m ‘hysterical’ because the east coast is drowning and a guy that might win is on record as saying he doesn’t give a shit about the oceans rising. Your republicans leaders have truly driven this bus into a ditch, with the help of some politically expedient ‘moderate’ democrats.

    Lee’s blog stands up for the rich and the socially craven. He is a parrot for Karl Rove, Dick Morris, Rush and faux news.

    I stand up for the workers, the environment and the other groups the GOP walks on.

    Don’t get your feelings hurt boys. I’m just telling the truth. Y’all insult what you love to call ‘the liberals’ every chance you get. We call ourselves Democrats by the way.

  7. THICK ORANGE CORNER Says:

    John 313!
    Just Curious. What do you do for living?

  8. John 31333 Says:

    :-)