It’s Christmas Eve and we have a full slate of meaningful games in the NFL. I love this time of year. The Chiefs, who have a glimmer of hope of winning the AFC West, must beat the Raiders today at Arrowhead. And as a Chiefs fan we will also be rooting for the Bills to beat the Broncos, and the Lions to beat the Chargers. Stranger things have happened. GO CHIEFS!

Just a few thoughts on the Chiefs.

Beating the Packers
Interim head coach Romeo Crennel deserves a lot of credit for the Chiefs beating the Packers this past weekend. The defense has been inconsistent, but has shown glimpses of excellence this season. I wasn’t overly surprised that our defense played well against the Packers, who were missing their top wide receiver, their best running back, and were banged up along the offensive line.

The big surprise was the play of the Chiefs’ offense. They were effective, efficient, and dominated the time of possession. I have defended Todd Haley often, but there’s no denying that the offense looked it’s best with offensive coordinator Bill Muir and Jim Zorn putting together the offense without Haley’s interference. If you’ve never watched the Bill Muir interviews on the Chiefs’ website, you’re missing out. He’s a great guy and a good interview. This week he was asked about the offense’s efficiency. From the Star:

The Chiefs had one of their best offensive games of the year, piling up a season-high 438 yards in a 19-14 win over Green Bay.

Offensive coordinator Bill Muir suggested this was because the Chiefs were led for the first time by interim head coach Romeo Crennel rather than Todd Haley, who was fired earlier in the week. Muir didn’t mention Haley by name, but when asked about these observations, he said, “If you thought it appeared that, then it probably was.

“Romeo delegates authority and expects the people who are given authority to do their job. He’s hands-on and he knows what he wants. As long as he’s getting it, he’s pretty calm. If he’s not getting it, then the calmness disappears in a hurry.”

The offense had good balance. The play calling was good. The line protected quarterback Kyle Orton and gave him time to make his reads. The Chiefs were able to get the plays in quickly to Orton, who got to the line with plenty of time to read the defense, call out protections, and adjust his receivers. That’s something we haven’t seen all season.

The Future at Quarterback
Not only have I defended Todd Haley, I’ve often defended Matt Cassel. I still believe that Cassel is a good quarterback. He’s just not a great quarterback. If you believe that you can only win a Super Bowl with an elite quarterback, then the Chiefs are in trouble. And for those now clamoring for the Chiefs to keep Kyle Orton and cut Cassel, be careful what you wish for. I’ve watched Orton enough the last couple of years to know this — Kyle Orton is Matt Cassel. Their career numbers are virtually identical. They are decent quarterbacks who can manage the game when things are going well. Orton may be a little more accurate down the field than Cassel, but he’s just as likely to melt down and throw three INTs in a game.

My problem with playing Orton now is that we learn nothing about rookie Ricky Stanzi. And if you believe that the Chiefs need an elite quarterback, with every win we get further away from being able to draft Robert Griffin III.

The Next Head Coach
The best news we have about the head coaching search is that people have stopped talking about Josh McDaniels! The public support has swung considerably to Crennel. But once again, be careful what you wish for. Even if he wins the next two games and somehow manages to get the Chiefs into the playoffs, he would still be down my list of candidates.

My biggest concern is that Crennel is Wade Phillips. Phillips has repeatedly proven to be one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. And he’s repeatedly shown that he’s not up to the task as a head coach. And my second biggest concern is Crennel’s age. Pioli should be looking for a guy who can be the head coach for the next ten years. At 64 years old, can you really see Crennel as the long-term answer in Kansas City?

Now having said that, he wouldn’t be an awful choice. I just hope he’s not the first choice.

While there’s no evidence that Bill Cowher wants to return to coaching, I hope that Pioli at least makes that call. And if not Cowher, there’s still Jon Gruden and Jeff Fisher out there. Both have been successful head coaches (more successful than Crennel was in Cleveland where he went 24-40), and are young enough to be a long-term fit in Kansas City.

I like the thought of Gruden a lot. He was the last head coach to win the Super Bowl without an elite quarterback (Brad Johnson). Bill Muir was the offensive coordinator when Gruden took the Bucs to the Super Bowl. And you would think that Crennel would be willing to stay on as defensive coordinator under Gruden. The Chiefs don’t need to start over, and Gruden could keep quite a bit of the staff in place.

Their are a number of rumors that the Chiefs and Fisher are close to finishing up a deal. While I think Fisher is a good choice, my concern is that the Chiefs will have to start over with new coordinators. Since Matt Cassel has been here, he’s already had four offensive coordinators. The Chiefs need consistency. But more than anything, the Chiefs need the right head coach. I’d take Fisher over Crennel.

But now let’s take Gruden and Fisher off the table. Where do the Chiefs go now? I think that leaves Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz or Romeo Crennel. I do not want to see the Chiefs take a flyer on an unproven coordinator when there are better, safer options available.

The Players Want Crennel
It certainly appears that Crennel is the top choice among the players, but this should be expected. Players don’t like change, and Crennel is a player’s coach. The players also wanted Gunther Cunningham when Schottenheimer left. And the players lead a revolt that got John Mackovic fired and Frank Gansz promoted. How did that work out?

CORRECTION: I misidentified Marv Levy as the coach who had been fired, when it was in fact John Mackovic. I have corrected it above.

It’s funny. For the last week I have been planning to write a post entitled “The Pioli Decision”. The gist of the article would have been that general manager Scott Pioli will be faced with a difficult decision when the year is over. Actually, two decisions that have consequences on each other. One, what to do with the quarterback. And two, what to do with the head coach.

You would think that the Chiefs will have to at least consider drafting a quarterback in the first round of the draft this year. And Todd Haley has (had) one year left on his contract. If Pioli believes in Matt Cassel, then he can allow Haley to coach the team through the final year of his contract before making a final decision on extending Haley’s contract or replacing him. But if the Chiefs draft a quarterback, you can’t let Haley dangle with just one year left. You either have to fire him at the end of the season, or extend his contract. It wouldn’t be fair to tell Haley he’s coaching for his job, and then hand him a rookie quarterback.

But on Monday, Pioli fired Haley.

Is it fair? From a coaching standpoint, probably not. Haley made mistakes this year, but there were circumstances well beyond his control. I’ve read many of the local and the national articles about Pioli’s decision, but I want to take this from a different perspective. The perspective of an employer.

I seem to be in the minority, but I like Todd Haley. I think he’s a good coach. Is he good enough to coach a team to the Super Bowl? Maybe. With the right team. But I don’t think Haley’s coaching ability had anything to do with why he was fired.

I have employed and managed hundreds of people. And one lesson I learned the hard way was that when you have an employee who is the wrong fit for your organization, the sooner you replace that employee, the better. There were rumors that Pioli wanted to fire Haley last year. Then there were rumors that Pioli would have fired Haley if the Chiefs had lost to the Colts and started the season 1-4. I tend to take rumors with a grain of salt. Many rumors are untrue and unfounded. But in hindsight, I think we can now assume they were true.

It’s clear that Pioli and Haley had a dysfunctional working relationship. And it’s likely that Pioli had come to the conclusion long ago that Haley was the wrong fit for the Chiefs. Or at least, the wrong fit to work for Pioli. But how do you fire a coach that just won the AFC West? That would have been a tough sell to Chiefs fans. Pioli decided he had to wait until he had “public justification” for the firing of Haley. And he finally got it with the loss to the Jets. The Chiefs could no longer pretend that they still had a shot at the playoffs. And Haley was fired.

I think the jury is still out on whether or not Scott Pioli can lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl. There are some glaring holes on this roster, and Pioli is responsible. Some have even speculated that Pioli sabotaged the roster so that he could justifiably fire Haley. I don’t believe that for a minute. But that doesn’t mean that Pioli made all of the same decisions that he would have made if he had full support of his head coach. Only Pioli can look in the mirror and decide if he did everything possible to make this season a success.

And while I tend to like Haley more than I like Pioli, I might have come to the same conclusion and fired Haley. It’s great to have fire and passion. I like that in a head coach. But I don’t like disrespect. A heated discussion between Haley and Matt Cassel doesn’t bother me at all. But some of the public arguments between Haley and his assistants bothered me a lot. Those discussions should be behind closed doors, and should always be respectful. As a business owner, I would never undermine one of my managers by berating them in front of other employees. (Actually, I don’t think I ever berated an employee.) Haley not only berated his assistants, he seemed to relish that atmosphere. He wanted the confrontations, and obviously believed them to be beneficial to the team. I’m guessing Pioli came to a different conclusion.

One more comment and we’ll move on. I listened to the press conference with Scott Pioli and owner Clark Hunt. I’ve been surprised that I haven’t seen this comment anywhere else. On multiple occasions, Hunt said that he wanted a team that the fans could be proud of. I’m guessing that Hunt was not proud to have Haley as the face of the franchise.

The Next Head Coach
Chiefs fans are clamoring for Bill Cowher. I would love it, but I don’t see it happening. I’m not sure that Cowher has the desire to coach again. I do hope that Pioli at least makes the call. So if not Cowher, then who?

Personally, I would be very enthused by either Jon Gruden or Jeff Fisher. Gruden has a good job with ESPN, and it’s unclear if he wants to return to coaching. That leaves Fisher as probably the hottest available coach on the market. I will be very surprised if he doesn’t take a job somewhere this year. There are already openings in Kansas City, Jacksonville and Miami. And I think it’s likely that San Diego and possibly St. Louis will be in the market for a new head coach.

But let’s make a case for Gruden. The Chiefs are certainly in better shape today than they were a few years ago. This is a good job to walk into. Pioli does not need to blow this thing up and start over. He will probably try to keep as much continuity as possible. Gruden is an offensive minded coach. And who was his offensive coordinator when he was with the Bucs and won a Super Bowl? Bill Muir. Gruden called the plays, but Muir was his offensive coordinator. And I think it’s likely Romeo Crennel would be willing to stay on as defensive coordinator under Gruden. He’s been out of football for a couple years now. If he wants back in,  this would be an excellent opportunity. And remember, Gruden won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson at quarterback. Pioli might be thinking that if Gruden can do it with Johnson, then he can do it with Cassel.

One thing I find interesting is that there isn’t a lot of buzz around the league about the offensive and defensive coordinators. Typically there are a few “hot” names out there. Not this year.

My biggest hope? Do NOT hire Josh McDaniels. Lots of people have been linking McDaniels to Pioli, and I think it’s very possible that Pioli would have hired McDaniels three years ago if Denver hadn’t gotten to him first. I think this would be a huge mistake. And Pioli can’t afford to make another mistake.

People have also been linking Pioli to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz. I don’t have any strong feelings either way about Ferentz. There have been a number of high profile college coaches who couldn’t cut in the NFL, but if you look at it objectively, MOST head coaches don’t make it in the NFL. Ultimately, most head coaches are fired within three-to-five years. And look at Jim Harbaugh. In his first season with San Francisco, he’s got the 49ers winning the NFC West.

Unless Pioli has his eye on a coordinator, this is something that could get wrapped up soon. There are strong candidates who are currently out of football. There’s no reason to wait.

So who’s to blame for the Chiefs season? Todd Haley? Scott Pioli? Matt Cassel? Clark Hunt? There’s a lot of fan anger in Kansas City as the Chiefs have stumbled to a 4-7 record. And a lot of finger pointing by fans and those in the media. Carl Peterson and Marty Schottenheimer took a struggling franchise and turned them into a winner. But they were never able to get over the hump. First the fans blamed Schottenheimer. He left. Then the fans blamed Peterson. And Gunther Cunningham. And Elvis Grbac. And Mike Solari. And Herm Edwards. And Brodie Croyle. The list is long. Today it’s some combination of Haley / Pioli / Cassel / Hunt.

But as usual, it’s rarely that simple. I have a few takes on what’s happened to the Chiefs this year, but today I’m going to focus on just one of them. How important is your best player?

It’s easy to get tunnel vision when looking at your team. Let’s step outside of Kansas City for a moment. For years the discussion in the NFL has been: who is the best quarterback in the league, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? Over the last ten seasons, Manning and Brady have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl six times with four wins between them. They’re leaders. They put up great stats. And they do nothing but win big games.

But beyond these two quarterbacks, most have considered Indianapolis and New England to be among the best franchises in the league. Bill Polian has built the Colts into perennial winners and one of the most dominant teams in the NFL. From 1999-2010, the Colts have a regular season record of 138-54.

And in New England, Bill Belichick has done much the same. With four Super Bowl appearances and three wins, Belichick is widely considered the best coach in football. From 2001-2010, the Patriots have a regular season record of 121-39, which includes 2007 when the team went 16-0. The Patriots are the only team other than the Dolphins to finish a regular season undefeated.

Manning and Brady have not only been consistent winners, they’ve remained remarkably durable. Schottenheimer used to say that a player’s best ability was availability. And when you’re talking about an elite quarterback, nothing could be more true. But what happens when you take away a team’s best player?

In 2008 we got a glimpse of what the Patriots look like without Tom Brady. The Chiefs knocked Brady out for the season in their first game. In came their backup Matt Cassel. A kid who shouldn’t even have been in the league. Cassel was a backup quarterback at USC, never starting a game or playing meaningful minutes for the Trojans. How did he do? The Patriots finished the season 11-5, and Cassel played very well.

And now in 2011, we’re getting a look at the Colts without Peyton Manning. The Colts are 0-11, and could quite possibly finish 0-16. They’re that bad. Quite a turnaround from a team that won the AFC South last year and finished 10-6.

What’s the lesson to be learned? New England surrounded their backup quarterback with enough talent to be successful. Indianapolis did not. If anything, this has only reinforced what an incredible quarterback Peyton Manning has been.

Now, back to Kansas City. The Chiefs lost their best player, Jamaal Charles, early in the season. And while Charles is not a quarterback, he was the engine that drove the offense. Before the season began, I had this to say:

Last year the offensive line was receiving a lot of praise for the Chiefs #1 rushing attack. I credit Jamaal Charles much more than I do the line.

I strongly believe that the loss of Jamaal Charles, combined with a less than average offensive line, has completely derailed the Chiefs’ season. Yes, there are other factors as well. But the Chiefs have shown they cannot consistently run the ball behind this offensive line without Charles. And Matt Cassel has been under constant pressure all year. He’s had no time to find his receivers. The running game has struggled. The passing game has struggled. And the Chiefs have found it very difficult to score any points. As Len Dawson likes to say, it starts up front with the big guys.

Kansas City fans are ready to run Cassel out of town. But surround him with the right players and he can be productive as he’s proven in 2008 with the Patriots (11-5 record) and 2010 with the Chiefs (10-6 record). Cassel is not Manning. He cannot lift the team on his shoulders. He needs a strong supporting cast, and without Charles running the ball, the Chiefs don’t have the cast to be productive on offense.

It’s amazing what the loss of one player can do. Just look at Indianapolis.

I was thinking about Trent Green and Matt Cassel the other day. Green is one of my all-time favorite Chiefs. He was the best quarterback we’d seen in a Chiefs’ uniform since Lenny Dawson. (My opinion is that while Joe Montana still had a little slice of magic in him, he was a shell of his former self those two years in KC.) Head coach Dick Vermeil brought Green to Kansas City with him in 2001. That year Green struggled mightily and was nicknamed Tr-INT by Jason Whitlock from the Star. Fans and members of the media were critical of the Chiefs’ decision to trade for Green. But that all changed. Trent went on to have a very impressive run from 2002-05. (See his stats on NFL.com here.) I remember thinking during that ‘03 playoff loss to the Colts that Green was the second best quarterback in the league behind Peyton Manning. His career derailed with a concussion early in 2006 and he was never quite the same after that.

Matt Cassel, on the other hand, has not been embraced by local fans. He too struggled his first year as a Chief — though I would make the case that most quarterbacks struggle in their first season with a new team. Cassel had a very productive season for the Chiefs last year leading them to an AFC West title. But after two crushing defeats to open the season this year, many in Kansas City were ready to run him out of town. One local radio host started the Kansas City “Suck for Luck” campaign, embracing the idea that the Chiefs should crash so hard that they end up with the first pick in the draft allowing them to pick Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

Both Green and Cassel are high-character guys. They’re tough. They’re leaders. Neither are the most gifted of athletes, but athletic enough to move around in the pocket or run for a first down. Neither has an incredibly strong arm. Personally, I see many more similarities between the two than differences. But you want to know the biggest difference? Their supporting cast. Let’s take a look. We’ll compare Green’s cast in his third season (2003) with Cassel’s cast this year, his third season as a  Chief.

Running Backs
2003: Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Tony Richardson, Derrick Blaylock
2011: Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones, Le’Ron McClain, Dexter McCluster

This comparison would be much more interesting if Jamaal Charles was healthy. I would have a difficult time choosing between Charles’ big play ability and Holmes’ nose for the endzone. But without Charles as a consideration, I would take every running back from that ‘03 team over their counterpart on the current team, and that includes Blaylock over McCluster.

2003: +4

Wide Receivers
2003: Eddie Kennison, Johnnie Morton, Dante Hall, Marc Boerigter
2011: Dwayne Bowe, Steve Breaston, Jonathan Baldwin, Keary Colbert

This is the one grouping that really shines today. I think we’ve got the best group of wide receivers I’ve ever watched play in Kansas City. Do you remember who caught the most balls for KC in 2003? Priest Holmes. Who was our second leading receiver? Tony Gonzalez. Only Eddie Kennison was a legitimate threat and could have hung with our current group of receivers. Kennison was roughly the equivalent of Breaston today.

2011: +3

Tight Ends
2003: Tony Gonzalez, Jason Dunn
2011: Leonard Pope, Jake O’Connell

A healthy Tony Moeaki wouldn’t alter this discussion. Gonzalez is the best tight end to ever play the game. And he was at the top of his game during these years in Kansas City. Dunn was a dominating blocker.

2003: +2

Offensive Line
2003: Willie Roaf, Brian Waters, Casey Wiegmann, Will Shields, John Tait
2011: Branden Albert, Ryan Lilja, Casey Wiegmann, Jon Asamoah, Barry Richardson

That offensive line in 2003 was possibly one of the most dominating offensive lines in NFL history. Roaf and Shields are likely Hall of Fame linemen. Waters was in his prime and received multiple trips to the Pro Bowl. Tait had been an effective left tackle, and was a very good right tackle. And Wiegmann was eight years younger and in his prime. Nobody on the current offensive line would be considered a Pro Bowl caliber lineman, let alone Hall of Famer. I would take every lineman from that ‘03 line over the current roster. It’s not even close.

2003: +5

I think it’s fair to say that Green had a MUCH stronger offensive cast around him. A dominating offensive line. Holmes was one of the best backs in the game. Gonzalez was the best tight end in the game. Even Richardson was widely considered the best blocking fullback in the game. (Read stats from the 2003 Chiefs here.)

So where does that leave Matt Cassel? Drawing the ire of Kansas City fans and many in the local sports media. Cassel will never be Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. But under the right circumstance he could be every bit as good as a Trent Green. What has most impressed me with Cassel this year is that I think he’s throwing the ball down field with much more accuracy than I’ve seen him in the past. He’s hitting receivers in stride on crossing routes 20+ yards down the field. When given time in the pocket, and an effective running game, he’s been very good. When he’s running for his life and our ground game is anemic, he doesn’t stand much of a chance. But that’s pretty much true for every quarterback in the league.

So here’s the most important question. Can Matt Cassel lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl? Not without a better supporting cast. The Chiefs must improve both their offensive and defensive lines considerably to become a contender. I don’t view Cassel as part of the problem. I do see him as part of the solution. I do believe that Cassel can play well enough on the right team to lead them to the Super Bowl.

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks in the AFC West. I may be overly optimistic, but I still think the Chiefs have a chance to make a run for the division title. I want to touch on all four teams for a moment.

But first, how about the Raiders going out and trading for Carson Palmer? A very interesting move. Palmer is a decent quarterback who probably has a couple years left in him. And news reports are suggesting that Palmer is likely to start against the Chiefs this weekend. Wow.

My take? Quarterbacks, even veteran quarterbacks, seldom excel in their first season with a new team. And that’s when they have an entire off-season and preseason to prepare. In 1993, Joe Montana took the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game, but did so mostly on the back of an outstanding defense. And in 2009, Brett Favre took the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game and posted a quarterback rating of 107.2. A very impressive season late in his career. But do you want to know what’s more common? Last year the Washington Redskins traded for Donovan McNabb who struggled and finished with a quarterback rating of 77.1. The only season he had with a worse rating? His rookie year in 1999 where he posted a rating of 60.1. Carson Palmer isn’t Brett Favre. Heck, he isn’t even Donovan McNabb. He’s a mediocre quarterback who enjoyed his best seasons in 2005 and 2006. The Raiders made a bold move, but probably not a smart move. If they end up winning the division and making a run in the playoffs, then it was a great move. If not, they’ve given up two very high draft picks and have hurt the long-term development of their team.

Now let’s look around the standings in the AFC West.

San Diego Chargers (4-1): The Chargers have beaten Minnesota (1-5), Kansas City (2-3), Miami (0-5) and Denver (1-4). They’ve lost to New England (5-1).

Reasons for optimism: The Chargers have managed to start fast, but that’s been more the result of the teams they’ve played, than how they’ve played. They still have a lot of talent. Ryan Matthews appears to be a legitimate starting running back.

Reasons for pessimism: Antonio Gates has played little this season. Their schedule is going to get much tougher. And Norv Turner is still their coach.

Prediction: Their schedule is going to get much tougher. And they’re going to need to play much better. I have a difficult time finding more than 5 wins on their remaining schedule. I think they end up 9-7, which is right around the record most of Norv Turner’s teams end up.

Oakland Raiders (4-2): The Raiders have beaten Denver (1-4), New York Jets (3-3), Houston (3-3) and Cleveland (2-3). They’ve lost to Buffalo (4-2) and New England (5-1).

Reasons for optimism: Darren McFadden is a stud, and the Raiders are second in the league in rushing. They’ve been the most impressive team in the division so far, and are a legitimate playoff contender.

Reasons for pessimism: The Raiders are ranked #28 in the league in total defense, and are particularly vulnerable against the pass where they’re ranked #30 in the league. Quarterback Jason Campbell was having a decent season before breaking his collarbone last week. It will be a big question as to how Carson Palmer will respond to his new surroundings. I don’t see any reason to think that the team will be better with Palmer than they were with Campbell. And it’s likely that they’ll be worse.

Prediction: The Raiders have a clear shot to win this division, but difficult to see six wins on their remaining schedule. I’m guessing they end up 9-7 as well.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3): The Chiefs have beaten Minnesota (1-5) and Indianapolis (0-6). And they’ve lost to Buffalo (4-2), Detroit (5-1) and San Diego (4-1).

Reasons for optimism: After two historically bad losses, the Chiefs appear to have righted the ship. And if they can pull off a win in Oakland this weekend, they’re sitting at 3-3, which is exactly where I had them (though I had them beating Buffalo and losing to Oakland to reach 3-3). If Jackie Battle can provide the Chiefs with a consistent ground attack, they’re going to be OK.

Reasons for pessimism: They’re still missing Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki for the season. And they’ve got a tough schedule ahead.

Prediction: Believe it or not, a win this weekend would put the Chiefs in a good position to win the AFC West. They would have their two toughest divisional games behind them with a 1-1 record. That leaves them two games against Denver, and home games against San Diego and Oakland. I think they’ve got 5 or 6 more wins in them this season, which puts them at 7-9 or 8-8. My original prediction of 9-7 looks very difficult.

Denver Broncos (1-4): Denver has beaten Cincinnati (4-2). They’ve lost to Oakland (4-2), Tennessee (3-2), Green Bay (6-0) and San Diego (4-1).

Reasons for optimism: John Fox is in his first year with the team, and he’s a good coach. He just didn’t have a lot to work with. Their schedule does get a bit easier.

Reasons for pessimism: Lots of them, including that they just traded away their best wide receiver. I’m not a Tim Tebow hater, and I have no clue if he’s going to be a good quarterback or not. History has shown us that quarterbacks with bad mechanics seldom have sustained success in the league. But Tebow is an interesting young man and an incredible athlete. He will make it interesting to say the least.

Prediction: Hard to see more than a couple wins left on their schedule. I’m guessing 4-12.

NOTE: You can read my  original predictions for the AFC West here.

So much happening in local sports. Just a few thoughts for a Sunday morning.

Kansas City Chiefs
That was quite a pounding the Bills put on the Chiefs last week. Is there anybody left on the Chiefs bandwagon? Not many. There’s plenty of room. Am surprised at just how quickly Chiefs fans turned on Todd Haley, Scott Pioli, Clark Hunt and Matt Cassel. These four took quite a beating this week on the radio and the message boards.

If you include the preseason and the playoffs, the Chiefs have now lost seven straight, and have been dominated in many of these games. They’ve lost young stars for the season due to injury (Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki). And the offense has been ineffective since Charlie Weis bolted for Florida.

Is there reason to hope? Can the Chiefs bounce back from this?

Todd Haley has warned us that the Chiefs are not good enough yet to win when they make mistakes. He said this all year last year, to the point where the media was tired of hearing it, and the fans no longer listened. He came out this week, and like a good leader, took complete responsibility for the loss. And again explained that the Chiefs are not good enough to win when they make mistakes. They made a lot of mistakes against the Bills.

What we’ve seen from the Chiefs the last couple of years is that they don’t give up. Last year after getting pounded by the Chargers in San Diego 31-0, the Chiefs came back and dominated the Rams in St. Louis 27-13.

I seem to be in the minority, but I like Todd Haley. I don’t believe, like many, that his ego gets in the way of his coaching. I think the Chiefs will right the ship and play better over the coming weeks. I had the Chiefs going 2-2 over their first four games. This is still possible. They just need to grab one on the road against either the Lions or the Chargers to get back on track. And even if they start the season 1-3, they’re still only one game back from where I thought they’d be. The season isn’t over yet. We’ve only played one game.

One more quick comment about the Chiefs. One of my criticisms about Herm Edwards as a head coach was that his teams never seemed prepared during the first few games of the regular season. Todd Haley took a different path this year in preparing the Chiefs. It may have been the wrong choice as his team does not look prepared for the regular season. Only time will tell, but this was a unique off-season. And even if Haley made a mistake with his plan, the Chiefs should be caught back up within another week or two.

If the team falls apart and finishes with only four or five wins, then I’ll admit I was wrong about Haley.

Kansas Jayhawks
That was quite a beating the Jayhawks took from Georgia Tech yesterday. The offense has shown some flashes. They’ve got some good young talent in the backfield. The defense is horrendous. I’m rooting for Turner Gill to succeed because I love my Jayhawks, and he seems like a fine man. But I’ve said from day one that he was not my choice to lead KU. I haven’t changed my mind.

It will be interesting to see how long new athletic director Sheahon Zenger sticks with Gill. Typically schools will give a new head coach at least three years to make his mark on a program. I’m afraid that Gill has already left his mark on KU.

Kansas City Royals
Typically by mid-July I’m done with the Royals and am ready for football. Not because I’m not still a fan, but you can only watch so many losses. But this year the Royals have continued to hold my attention. This is an exciting young team currently on a seven game winning streak.

The outfield is among the best in baseball. They hit (all four have 40 or more doubles) and play great defense (more outfield assists than any other team in baseball). And they’re young. They’re all 27 years old. Which on this team makes them grizzled veterans compared to the infield.

The infield is exciting as well. First baseman Eric Hosmer looks like he’ll be a star. Catcher Salvador Perez has shown that his defensive prowess and game managing skills are well beyond his years. He’s only 21, and may be the best young catcher in baseball. And his bat has been much better than advertised. Alcides Escobar is among the best defensive short stops in the game, and his bat is improving. Mike Moustakas does not look very smooth at third base, but seems to be making all the plays you would expect him to make. And his bat is waking up. He will be able to hit in the big leagues. At second base we have Johnny Giavotella. He’s just the type of kid you want to cheer for. He’s got a decent glove, and looks like he’ll have a good approach at the plate.

The problem remains starting pitching. Most of the Royals premium talent is a year or more away from the big leagues. And the Royals will not be able to fix their staff in free agency. They may try to bolster the rotation in a trade, but that will prove difficult. Realistically, fixing the rotation will probably have to come from improvement from within. Bruce Chen has been their most effective starter the last two years. The Royals need to get him resigned. We’ve seen flashes from Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino and Luke Hochevar. I’m hopeful they’ll give Aaron Crow a crack at the rotation. And Everett Teaford is making a case for his shot as well. Will this be enough? I hope so.

The End of the Big 12?
When we found out that Nebraska and Colorado were leaving the Big 12, it looked like the end. At the time I would have predicted that we were moving towards four 16-team super conferences. But then the Big 12 (at least the remaining ten) hung together and worked out a lucrative TV deal to keep the league together. But now things are falling apart again. Can the powers-that-be keep the Big 12 together again? I don’t know. I do know that if KU, K-State and MU end up in different conferences, college sports in the Midwest will never be the same again. And that will truly be unfortunate.

Tomorrow the Chiefs begin their quest for a second consecutive AFC West title as they face off against the Buffalo Bills in Arrowhead Stadium. There seems to be two streams of thought about the Chiefs in 2011:

1. The Chiefs could be better, but since their schedule is tougher, they are likely to finish below 10-6 and miss the playoffs.

2. There’s a history of teams that make a big leap forward one year then slipping back the next year. The Chiefs will finish below 10-6. Possibly 7-9. Some are predicting 6-10.

On paper the schedule certainly appears tougher, especially a stretch late in the season as the Chiefs must play New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York Jets and Green Bay over a five week span. However, seasons seldom unfold the way the pundits expect. For instance, in week five the Chiefs travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts. Most of us probably put this game in the loss column for the Chiefs when the schedule was released. But now that Peyton Manning has had his second neck surgery and the Colts have pulled Kerry Collins out of retirement, this game is back in play.

Six Reasons the Chiefs Are Better

1. The secondary will be better. Last year the Chiefs started two rookie safeties in Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis. They also used rookie Javier Arenas as their nickel cornerback. They were good last year, and all three should be better this year. Eric Berry might be great. This young secondary could become one of the best in the NFL.

2. Last year the Chiefs struggled in short yardage and goal line situations running the ball. This year the Chiefs have brought in running back Le’Ron McClain. As a fullback he is a better blocker than what the Chiefs had last year. And as a running back he’s the big powerful presence that the Chiefs were missing. Converting a few more of those third-and-ones will sustain drives and improve the offense.

3. The pass rush will be better. Tamba Hali was a stud last year, and Wallace Gilberry did his part to throw in a few sacks. This year the Chiefs will be adding Cameron Sheffield and rookie Justin Houston into the mix. The Chiefs were very excited about Sheffield last year until he was hurt in the preseason and put on injured reserve. Both have shown flashes this preseason, in particular Houston who should take the starting spot away from Andy Studebaker before the season is done. Houston looks like a freak. Matter of fact, and I hate to write it, he reminds me a bit of Derrick Thomas.

4. The passing game will be better. Last year the Chiefs put Matt Cassel on a very short leash in the passing game. By mid-season, Cassel had become one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league. He threw for 3,116 yards and had an amazing TD-to-INT ratio of 27-7. With the development of Dwayne Bowe, a new stable of wide receivers and another year of experience, I expect the Chiefs offense to be much more balanced this year. I don’t expect the Chiefs to be #1 in rushing, but I do expect them to be much better than #30 in passing. Last year the Chiefs were #12 in total offense despite their passing game. This year with better offensive balance they should crack the top ten. My prediction is that Cassel will throw for more than 3,500 yards, but he probably cannot duplicate his TD-to-INT ratio. Predicting 26 TDs and 12 INTs. Anything better than 2-to-1 is good enough.

5. The defensive line is improving. I am in the minority on this one, but I like how the defensive line is coming together. Glenn Dorsey has gotten better every year. Kelly Gregg is an upgrade over Ron Edwards at nose tackle. Wallace Gilberry brings the heat. Amon Gordon could be this year’s Shawn Smith. Rookie Allen Bailey, nicknamed “The Freak”, adds much needed depth and athletic ability to the line. And the Chiefs think they have their nose tackle of the future in rookie Jerrell Powe. (Great article on Powe in the Star recently. Read it here.)

6. Consistency and coaching. Even with the loss of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, the Chiefs have put together a solid coaching staff. Romeo Crennel is in his second year as defensive coordinator. I love the addition of Jim Zorn to help the quarterbacks. And head coach Todd Haley showed significant progress in his ability to lead the team from year one to year two.

Four Reason for Concern

1. The offensive line. Last year the offensive line was receiving a lot of praise for the Chiefs #1 rushing attack. I credit Jamaal Charles much more than I do the line. Second year guard Jon Asamoah replaces the veteran Brian Waters. In the long run this is the right move. Waters is at the end of his career, and is not the player he once was. But Asamoah is not Brian Waters yet. Center Casey Wiegmann is old, small and has never stood up well against big, powerful nose tackles. Rookie Rodney Hudson is the heir apparent in the middle, which could come sooner rather than later. Branden Albert is serviceable at left tackle, but has not become the player the Chiefs had hoped for. And right tackle Barry Richardson struggled mightily during the preseason. If tackle Jared Gaither is healthy and can play at right tackle, that would help a lot.

2. The injury to tight end Tony Moeaki will be tough to overcome. Moeaki is a matchup problem for opposing defenses, and figured to play a significant role in the offense. Without him, the Chiefs do not have a pass catching threat at tight end.

3. The jury is still out on defensive tackle Tyson Jackson. Many have already written him off as a bust. My hope is that he makes the same strides forward from year two to year three that Glenn Dorsey made last year. I’m rooting for him, but I think this could go either way.

4. The Chiefs defense must improve. Last year the Chiefs were ranked #14 against the run, #17 against the pass, and #14 in total yards allowed per game. With improvement from the secondary and an improved pass rush, I expect the pass defense to be better. But will their run defense be better? I don’t know.

Predictions for the AFC West

This is really a two horse race for the AFC West. I would be incredibly surprised if either the Oakland Raiders or Denver Broncos surpassed six or seven wins. That leaves KC and San Diego to fight it out for the AFC West title. Who is the coach in San Diego? Norv Turner. One of the worst coaches in the NFL in my opinion. Despite having one of the most talented rosters in the league, the Chargers have grossly underachieved in two of their last three seasons. In 2008 the team finished 8-8, and amazingly won the division. And last year finished 9-7. People keep talking about the Chiefs schedule, but the Chargers have basically the same schedule. They face all of the same opponents but two. The Chiefs face division winners Indianapolis (without Peyton Manning) and Pittsburgh. The Chargers face second place finishers Jacksonville (who I expect to be better without David Garrard) and Baltimore (a very good team who smashed us in the playoffs).

Now the wildcard is not likely to come out of the AFC West, so the Chiefs must win the division to make the playoffs. So here’s my prediction:

Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 8-8
Oakland Raiders: 7-9
Denver Broncos: 5-11

You might call me a homer, but just as a reminder, I did not pick the Chiefs last year. And if the Chargers had a better head coach, I would probably pick them again this year. The Chiefs roster is improving, but the Chargers still have more talent, especially at the quarterback position.

A Final Thought

So when does a team take that final step from being a good team to an elite team? Are the Chiefs ready to make that step? It’s easy to predict that the teams who were good one year will be good the next. But we know from history that about half of the teams who made the playoffs in 2010 are unlikely to make the playoffs in 2011.

You’ve heard the cliche for years — defense wins championships. And I still believe this to be true. The Chiefs were a decent defense last year. Middle of the pack. But to make a run, they must evolve into a top ten defense. My thought has always been that you need three stars on defense to be great. And then you must surround them with the right supporting cast. When the Chiefs had those great defenses in the ’90s, they had four impact players in Derrick Thomas, Neil Smith, Dale Carter and James Hasty. And they surrounded them with an excellent supporting cast.

Last year Tamba Hali was a star, but the only one on the defense. Brandon Flowers is a very good cornerback, though not sure he’ll ever be great. Eric Berry looks like he could become a star at safety. If Derrick Johnson could just hold on to a few of those interceptions, he could be a game changer in the middle. And Justin Houston looks like he could become an impact player opposite Hali. If this defense comes together, the Chiefs have a chance to become great.

One of the things I’ve really come to appreciate about the Scott Pioli approach is how the Chiefs identify their needs, and find the right players to fill them. The Chiefs had plenty of holes on their roster a couple years ago, and you can’t plug them all in one off-season.

Quarterbacks
Loss: Brodie Croyle
Gain: Ricky Stanzi
Summary: The Chiefs have little experience among their backup quarterbacks. Considering that Croyle had experience but had never gotten a victory, it’s hard to imagine that the Chiefs are any worse off without him. Time will tell what happens here. Many in the media believe that the Chiefs need an experienced number two, but not much out there to sign. There’s certainly some risk entering the season with Tyler Palko and Stanzi as your options behind Matt Cassel.
Result: Unknown

Running Backs
Loss: Tim Castille
Gain: Le’Ron McClain, Shane Bannon
Summary: Despite having the number one rushing attack in the NFL last year, the Chiefs were not very good in short yardage or goal line situations. McClain should help both as a blocker and as a threat to run and catch the ball. The Chiefs have managed to improve the best backfield in the NFL.
Result: Big Improvement

Wide Receivers
Loss: Chris Chambers
Gain: Jonathan Baldwin, Steve Breaston, Keary Colbert, Jerheme Urban (back from IR)
Summary: The Chiefs have more talent at wide receiver than they’ll be able to keep. When was the last time you could say that? My warning is that rookie wide receivers seldom make an impact. Don’t be surprised if Baldwin comes off the bench early in the season. Other than Dwayne Bowe, expect to see the rest of the receivers rotate through different packages.
Result: Big Improvement

Tight Ends
Summary: No movement among tight ends is fine with me. If Tony Moeaki improves on his rookie performance, the Chiefs might have a star in the making. He put up better numbers last year than Tony Gonzalez did in his rookie campaign.

Offensive Line
Loss: Brian Waters
Gain: Rodney Hudson, Jared Gaither
Summary: Despite having the best rushing attack in the NFL, I’m glad that the Chiefs continue to improve the line. I think Jamaal Charles made them look good, not the other way around. They’ve moved second year guard Jon Asamoah into the starting lineup at right guard. They’ll flip Ryan Lilja to the left side, which is where he played for the Colts, to replace Waters. Waters was one of my favorite Chiefs, but he hasn’t played at a Pro Bowl level in years. Casey Wiegmann is back at center, but he’s only holding the position until Hudson is ready. And Gaither is an interesting pickup. If he’s healthy, he should eventually start at one of the offensive tackle positions. I’m not convinced he’s healthy. Or one of the right 53.
Result: Probably Improved

Defensive Line
Loss: Shawn Smith, Ron Edwards
Gain: Kelly Gregg, Jerrell Powe, Allen Bailey
Summary: Very happy that the Chiefs re-signed Wallace Gilberry. He was high on my list of off-season priorities. I suspect that we’ll quickly realize that Gregg is a significant upgrade over Edwards in the middle of the line. Smith played fairly well last year, and offered nice flexibility with his ability to play anywhere along the line. The key this year will be for us to continue to see improvement from Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey. Bailey and Powe will likely get playing time.
Result: Improved

Linebackers
Loss: Mike Vrabel
Gain: Justin Houston, Brandon Silar, Cameron Sheffield (back fromIR)
Summary: Vrabel provided leadership, but it appeared that Andy Studebaker was already outplaying him on the field. And it appears that both Houston and Sheffield will add some punch to the pass rush.
Result: Improved

Cornerbacks
Loss: None
Gain: Jalil Brown
Summary: Brown will likely compete with Javier Arenas in the nickel, but could be a long-term replacement if the Chiefs are unable to sign either Brandon Carr or Brandon Flowers to an extension.
Result: Unknown

Safeties
Loss: None
Gain: Sabby Piscitelli
Summary: Piscitelli was brought in to create competition. Not even sure he’ll make the team. The Chiefs are set at safety with Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis. With each of them entering the second years in the league, we should see continued improvement from both of them.
Result: Improved with Age

Specialties
Summary: The Chiefs appear set with kicker Ryan Succop and punter Dustin Colquit. The Chiefs would like to get more production from their returners Dexter McCluster and Arenas.

So when does a great team become a great team? Somewhere they have to transition from good to great. Is there any reason this couldn’t be the year for the Chiefs?

I’m excited to be writing about football and the Chiefs. It was a long and boring off-season as the owners and the players haggled over billions of dollars. With a new long-term deal in place, we shouldn’t have to go through this again any time soon.

Just a few quick notes. We’ll take a more in-depth look at the roster in a few days.

Like it or not, the Chiefs have a plan, and they’ve stuck to it. Last year the Chiefs signed a group of veterans that included guard Ryan Lilja, center Casey Wiegmann, running back Thomas Jones, wide receiver Jerheme Urban (who spent the season on the injured reserve) and defensive lineman Shaun Smith. The fans and the media were underwhelmed. But the Chiefs improved by six games over the season before, and won the AFC West.

This year the media had higher expectations. Misunderstanding the labor agreement, many in the media thought that the Chiefs would be forced to be more aggressive in free agency in order to reach a league minimum for team salary — though if they’d been paying better attention, they’d have realized that the new minimum doesn’t kick in for a couple years.

And apparently they haven’t been paying attention to the Pioli plan in the first place.

This year the Chiefs have signed defensive tackle Kelly Gregg, fullback Le’Ron McClain and wide receiver Steve Breaston. But more importantly, in the last year, the Chiefs have re-signed and extended long-term contracts for linebackers Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Andy Studebaker, and running back Jamaal Charles. My expectation is that before this season is over, the Chiefs will have new deals with wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and cornerback Brandon Flowers.

I love the plan.

The New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles have made the most news with their acquisitions this year. But Super Bowls are not won by big splashes in free agency. They’re won by drafting well, developing your players from within, and plugging a few holes with the right veterans. Look at the recent success of teams like the Packers, the Steelers, the Colts and other Super Bowl winners. You would have included the Patriots in this group while they were winning championships, but they’ve crossed over to the darkside of free agency and appear to be trying to buy one final Super Bowl before Tom Brady and Bill Belichick retire. These winning organizations don’t often sign the “big name” free agents. They draft and develop their core players.

The Chiefs have the right plan, and are executing it well. They have plugged holes in their roster through the draft and free agency. And with continued player development, the Chiefs will be better again this year.

The Chiefs’ defense took a significant step forward under new defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel in 2010. After years of struggling on defense, the Chiefs became competent in 2010. But the Chiefs must continue to improve on defense if they want to make a run in the playoffs. While the Chiefs were comparable in offense to the four teams in the AFC and NFC Championship Games this year, they weren’t comparable on defense.

First let’s look at some of the Chiefs’ primary defensive statistics:
Total Defense: #14
Points Allowed: #22
Rushing Defense: #14
Passing Defense: #17

Now let’s look at the final four teams in the playoffs this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Total Defense: #2
Points Allowed: #1
Rushing Defense: #1
Passing Defense: #12

New York Jets
Total Defense: #3
Points Allowed: #6
Rushing Defense: #3
Passing Defense: #6

Green Bay Packers
Total Defense: #5
Points Allowed: #2
Rushing Defense: #18
Passing Defense: #5

Chicago Bears
Total Defense: #9
Points Allowed: #4
Rushing Defense: #2
Passing Defense: #20

It’s not a coincidence that the two teams that made it to the Super Bowl, the Steelers and the Packers, had two of the top defenses in the league, and were the top two in points allowed. When you prevent teams from scoring, you can win a lot of games.

So let’s take a quick look at the Chiefs by position group on defense.

Defensive Line: Glenn Dorsey, Ron Edwards (free agent), Tyson Jackson, Shaun Smith (free agent), Wallace Gilberry (free agent), Anthony Toribio, Dion Gales

The Chiefs developed a nice rotation among their defensive linemen. We’ve seen Dorsey and Gilberry make good strides, and I’m still hopeful that Jackson can as well. Smith was a nice surprise this year, and helped the defense considerably. But the Chiefs need to continue to improve their line. They need a player who can collapse the middle of the pocket on a more consistent basis. I’d really like to see the Chiefs retain Gilberry for his pass rushing skills, who was second on the team with seven sacks. While I’m not opposed to resigning Smith and Edwards, eventually the Chiefs need to find a true nose tackle who can clog up the middle and generate a little pass rush in the pocket. I would expect that the Chiefs will consider a nose tackle high in the draft.

Linebackers: Tamba Hali (free agent), Derrick Johnson, Jovan Belcher, Mike Vrabel (free agent), Corey Mays (free agent), Andy Studebaker, Demorrio Williams, Cameron Sheffield, Charlie Anderson (free agent), Cory Greenwood (free agent), Justin Cole

I have similar feelings about the linebackers as I do the defensive line. We have a good unit, but not a great unit. Hali has become an exceptional pass rusher, and must be resigned. Johnson has become much more consistent, but he’s not the impact player we had hoped. And he drops too many potential interceptions. The Chiefs have been grooming Studebaker to replace Vrabel, but don’t count out Sheffield for this role. He spent the season on injured reserve, and it sounds like the Chiefs really like this kid.

The Chiefs are lacking that guy with the killer instinct like Green Bay’s Clay Matthews or Pittsburgh’s James Harrison. Would love to see the Chiefs target a linebacker in one of the top two rounds, either a pass rushing linebacker to replace Vrabel, or a hard-nosed playermaker in the middle to play with Johnson. An upgrade here would help the Chiefs considerably.

Cornerbacks: Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr (free agent), Javier Arenas, Travis Daniels (free agent), Maurice Leggett (free agent, can also play safety), Donald Washington (can also play safety)

In 2009, the Chiefs were awful when they went into their nickel package utilizing three cornerbacks. Arenas really solidified the nickel spot this year and allowed the Chiefs to play Flowers on the outside. But you can never have enough good corners. Even if they resign Carr, don’t be surprised if the Chiefs draft another cornerback.

Safeties: Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Jon McGraw (free agent), Ricky Price, Reshard Langford (free agent)

The Chiefs appear to have their two safeties of the future with Berry and Lewis. One of the primary reasons the Chiefs improved on defense this year was because of Berry and Lewis, who will only get better.

The Chiefs are strong in their defensive backfield, but a few key improvements to the line and among the linebackers could help the Chiefs reach that next level defensively.