Tomorrow the Chiefs begin their quest for a second consecutive AFC West title as they face off against the Buffalo Bills in Arrowhead Stadium. There seems to be two streams of thought about the Chiefs in 2011:

1. The Chiefs could be better, but since their schedule is tougher, they are likely to finish below 10-6 and miss the playoffs.

2. There’s a history of teams that make a big leap forward one year then slipping back the next year. The Chiefs will finish below 10-6. Possibly 7-9. Some are predicting 6-10.

On paper the schedule certainly appears tougher, especially a stretch late in the season as the Chiefs must play New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York Jets and Green Bay over a five week span. However, seasons seldom unfold the way the pundits expect. For instance, in week five the Chiefs travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts. Most of us probably put this game in the loss column for the Chiefs when the schedule was released. But now that Peyton Manning has had his second neck surgery and the Colts have pulled Kerry Collins out of retirement, this game is back in play.

Six Reasons the Chiefs Are Better

1. The secondary will be better. Last year the Chiefs started two rookie safeties in Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis. They also used rookie Javier Arenas as their nickel cornerback. They were good last year, and all three should be better this year. Eric Berry might be great. This young secondary could become one of the best in the NFL.

2. Last year the Chiefs struggled in short yardage and goal line situations running the ball. This year the Chiefs have brought in running back Le’Ron McClain. As a fullback he is a better blocker than what the Chiefs had last year. And as a running back he’s the big powerful presence that the Chiefs were missing. Converting a few more of those third-and-ones will sustain drives and improve the offense.

3. The pass rush will be better. Tamba Hali was a stud last year, and Wallace Gilberry did his part to throw in a few sacks. This year the Chiefs will be adding Cameron Sheffield and rookie Justin Houston into the mix. The Chiefs were very excited about Sheffield last year until he was hurt in the preseason and put on injured reserve. Both have shown flashes this preseason, in particular Houston who should take the starting spot away from Andy Studebaker before the season is done. Houston looks like a freak. Matter of fact, and I hate to write it, he reminds me a bit of Derrick Thomas.

4. The passing game will be better. Last year the Chiefs put Matt Cassel on a very short leash in the passing game. By mid-season, Cassel had become one of the more efficient quarterbacks in the league. He threw for 3,116 yards and had an amazing TD-to-INT ratio of 27-7. With the development of Dwayne Bowe, a new stable of wide receivers and another year of experience, I expect the Chiefs offense to be much more balanced this year. I don’t expect the Chiefs to be #1 in rushing, but I do expect them to be much better than #30 in passing. Last year the Chiefs were #12 in total offense despite their passing game. This year with better offensive balance they should crack the top ten. My prediction is that Cassel will throw for more than 3,500 yards, but he probably cannot duplicate his TD-to-INT ratio. Predicting 26 TDs and 12 INTs. Anything better than 2-to-1 is good enough.

5. The defensive line is improving. I am in the minority on this one, but I like how the defensive line is coming together. Glenn Dorsey has gotten better every year. Kelly Gregg is an upgrade over Ron Edwards at nose tackle. Wallace Gilberry brings the heat. Amon Gordon could be this year’s Shawn Smith. Rookie Allen Bailey, nicknamed “The Freak”, adds much needed depth and athletic ability to the line. And the Chiefs think they have their nose tackle of the future in rookie Jerrell Powe. (Great article on Powe in the Star recently. Read it here.)

6. Consistency and coaching. Even with the loss of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, the Chiefs have put together a solid coaching staff. Romeo Crennel is in his second year as defensive coordinator. I love the addition of Jim Zorn to help the quarterbacks. And head coach Todd Haley showed significant progress in his ability to lead the team from year one to year two.

Four Reason for Concern

1. The offensive line. Last year the offensive line was receiving a lot of praise for the Chiefs #1 rushing attack. I credit Jamaal Charles much more than I do the line. Second year guard Jon Asamoah replaces the veteran Brian Waters. In the long run this is the right move. Waters is at the end of his career, and is not the player he once was. But Asamoah is not Brian Waters yet. Center Casey Wiegmann is old, small and has never stood up well against big, powerful nose tackles. Rookie Rodney Hudson is the heir apparent in the middle, which could come sooner rather than later. Branden Albert is serviceable at left tackle, but has not become the player the Chiefs had hoped for. And right tackle Barry Richardson struggled mightily during the preseason. If tackle Jared Gaither is healthy and can play at right tackle, that would help a lot.

2. The injury to tight end Tony Moeaki will be tough to overcome. Moeaki is a matchup problem for opposing defenses, and figured to play a significant role in the offense. Without him, the Chiefs do not have a pass catching threat at tight end.

3. The jury is still out on defensive tackle Tyson Jackson. Many have already written him off as a bust. My hope is that he makes the same strides forward from year two to year three that Glenn Dorsey made last year. I’m rooting for him, but I think this could go either way.

4. The Chiefs defense must improve. Last year the Chiefs were ranked #14 against the run, #17 against the pass, and #14 in total yards allowed per game. With improvement from the secondary and an improved pass rush, I expect the pass defense to be better. But will their run defense be better? I don’t know.

Predictions for the AFC West

This is really a two horse race for the AFC West. I would be incredibly surprised if either the Oakland Raiders or Denver Broncos surpassed six or seven wins. That leaves KC and San Diego to fight it out for the AFC West title. Who is the coach in San Diego? Norv Turner. One of the worst coaches in the NFL in my opinion. Despite having one of the most talented rosters in the league, the Chargers have grossly underachieved in two of their last three seasons. In 2008 the team finished 8-8, and amazingly won the division. And last year finished 9-7. People keep talking about the Chiefs schedule, but the Chargers have basically the same schedule. They face all of the same opponents but two. The Chiefs face division winners Indianapolis (without Peyton Manning) and Pittsburgh. The Chargers face second place finishers Jacksonville (who I expect to be better without David Garrard) and Baltimore (a very good team who smashed us in the playoffs).

Now the wildcard is not likely to come out of the AFC West, so the Chiefs must win the division to make the playoffs. So here’s my prediction:

Kansas City Chiefs: 9-7
San Diego Chargers: 8-8
Oakland Raiders: 7-9
Denver Broncos: 5-11

You might call me a homer, but just as a reminder, I did not pick the Chiefs last year. And if the Chargers had a better head coach, I would probably pick them again this year. The Chiefs roster is improving, but the Chargers still have more talent, especially at the quarterback position.

A Final Thought

So when does a team take that final step from being a good team to an elite team? Are the Chiefs ready to make that step? It’s easy to predict that the teams who were good one year will be good the next. But we know from history that about half of the teams who made the playoffs in 2010 are unlikely to make the playoffs in 2011.

You’ve heard the cliche for years — defense wins championships. And I still believe this to be true. The Chiefs were a decent defense last year. Middle of the pack. But to make a run, they must evolve into a top ten defense. My thought has always been that you need three stars on defense to be great. And then you must surround them with the right supporting cast. When the Chiefs had those great defenses in the ’90s, they had four impact players in Derrick Thomas, Neil Smith, Dale Carter and James Hasty. And they surrounded them with an excellent supporting cast.

Last year Tamba Hali was a star, but the only one on the defense. Brandon Flowers is a very good cornerback, though not sure he’ll ever be great. Eric Berry looks like he could become a star at safety. If Derrick Johnson could just hold on to a few of those interceptions, he could be a game changer in the middle. And Justin Houston looks like he could become an impact player opposite Hali. If this defense comes together, the Chiefs have a chance to become great.

One of the things I’ve really come to appreciate about the Scott Pioli approach is how the Chiefs identify their needs, and find the right players to fill them. The Chiefs had plenty of holes on their roster a couple years ago, and you can’t plug them all in one off-season.

Quarterbacks
Loss: Brodie Croyle
Gain: Ricky Stanzi
Summary: The Chiefs have little experience among their backup quarterbacks. Considering that Croyle had experience but had never gotten a victory, it’s hard to imagine that the Chiefs are any worse off without him. Time will tell what happens here. Many in the media believe that the Chiefs need an experienced number two, but not much out there to sign. There’s certainly some risk entering the season with Tyler Palko and Stanzi as your options behind Matt Cassel.
Result: Unknown

Running Backs
Loss: Tim Castille
Gain: Le’Ron McClain, Shane Bannon
Summary: Despite having the number one rushing attack in the NFL last year, the Chiefs were not very good in short yardage or goal line situations. McClain should help both as a blocker and as a threat to run and catch the ball. The Chiefs have managed to improve the best backfield in the NFL.
Result: Big Improvement

Wide Receivers
Loss: Chris Chambers
Gain: Jonathan Baldwin, Steve Breaston, Keary Colbert, Jerheme Urban (back from IR)
Summary: The Chiefs have more talent at wide receiver than they’ll be able to keep. When was the last time you could say that? My warning is that rookie wide receivers seldom make an impact. Don’t be surprised if Baldwin comes off the bench early in the season. Other than Dwayne Bowe, expect to see the rest of the receivers rotate through different packages.
Result: Big Improvement

Tight Ends
Summary: No movement among tight ends is fine with me. If Tony Moeaki improves on his rookie performance, the Chiefs might have a star in the making. He put up better numbers last year than Tony Gonzalez did in his rookie campaign.

Offensive Line
Loss: Brian Waters
Gain: Rodney Hudson, Jared Gaither
Summary: Despite having the best rushing attack in the NFL, I’m glad that the Chiefs continue to improve the line. I think Jamaal Charles made them look good, not the other way around. They’ve moved second year guard Jon Asamoah into the starting lineup at right guard. They’ll flip Ryan Lilja to the left side, which is where he played for the Colts, to replace Waters. Waters was one of my favorite Chiefs, but he hasn’t played at a Pro Bowl level in years. Casey Wiegmann is back at center, but he’s only holding the position until Hudson is ready. And Gaither is an interesting pickup. If he’s healthy, he should eventually start at one of the offensive tackle positions. I’m not convinced he’s healthy. Or one of the right 53.
Result: Probably Improved

Defensive Line
Loss: Shawn Smith, Ron Edwards
Gain: Kelly Gregg, Jerrell Powe, Allen Bailey
Summary: Very happy that the Chiefs re-signed Wallace Gilberry. He was high on my list of off-season priorities. I suspect that we’ll quickly realize that Gregg is a significant upgrade over Edwards in the middle of the line. Smith played fairly well last year, and offered nice flexibility with his ability to play anywhere along the line. The key this year will be for us to continue to see improvement from Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey. Bailey and Powe will likely get playing time.
Result: Improved

Linebackers
Loss: Mike Vrabel
Gain: Justin Houston, Brandon Silar, Cameron Sheffield (back fromIR)
Summary: Vrabel provided leadership, but it appeared that Andy Studebaker was already outplaying him on the field. And it appears that both Houston and Sheffield will add some punch to the pass rush.
Result: Improved

Cornerbacks
Loss: None
Gain: Jalil Brown
Summary: Brown will likely compete with Javier Arenas in the nickel, but could be a long-term replacement if the Chiefs are unable to sign either Brandon Carr or Brandon Flowers to an extension.
Result: Unknown

Safeties
Loss: None
Gain: Sabby Piscitelli
Summary: Piscitelli was brought in to create competition. Not even sure he’ll make the team. The Chiefs are set at safety with Eric Berry and Kendrick Lewis. With each of them entering the second years in the league, we should see continued improvement from both of them.
Result: Improved with Age

Specialties
Summary: The Chiefs appear set with kicker Ryan Succop and punter Dustin Colquit. The Chiefs would like to get more production from their returners Dexter McCluster and Arenas.

So when does a great team become a great team? Somewhere they have to transition from good to great. Is there any reason this couldn’t be the year for the Chiefs?

I’ve long made the case, even before the hiring of general manager Scott Pioli, that you build a team through the draft, not free agency. In a related story from Sam Mellinger in the KC Star this morning, it appears that there’s no correlation between money spent and winning games in the NFL. I’m not surprised.

Sam starts out by explaining:

The amount of cash that teams commit to players has no impact on their success.

Not some impact. Not a little impact. Zero impact.

That’s according to documents obtained by The Star through league sources, numbers that show that today’s NFL can be conquered equally by big spenders and small. Analysis by third-party sources confirms that there is no connection in the amount of money teams spend and the amount of on-field success they have.

The Chiefs have spent time defending their approach to free agency. They have come under fire from both the media and fans for not being more aggressive in pursuing the high profile free agents and spending more money. We’ve watched teams like the Oakland Raiders, Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins commit huge amounts of money to the “best” free agents on the market, yet have little to show for it.

The Chiefs had one of the lowest payrolls in the league a couple years ago as they started their youth movement. But now as their best players become due for new contracts, the Chiefs are spending more money retaining players like Tamba Hali, Jamaal Charles and Derrick Johnson. They are now in the middle of the pack in regards to money spent, with deals looming for Dwayne Bowe and Brandon Flowers.

Sam goes on to explain:

Since 2001, the highest-spending team in each season won an average of 8.3 games. The Packers and Colts won the Super Bowl in years they spent the most money, but six other seasons the biggest spender didn’t even make the playoffs. The Giants won their Super Bowl while being ranked 30th in spending.

Over the same period, the top quarter of spenders each year won an average of 8.4 games. It’s consistent too: No year averaged more than 9.4 wins (in 2009) or fewer than 7.1 (2005).

The last 10 Super Bowl winners have ranked, on average, 15th in spending. The Super Bowl loser ranked 16th.

A connection between spending and winning just does not exist.

Keep in mind these numbers reflect actual cash spent, not the funny-money manipulation of salary-cap numbers.

Through deeper analysis and conversations with personnel men throughout the league, logical reasons for the disconnect between big spending and big winning begin to surface.

First, as Washington and Dallas and a few others have proved, free agency is an extremely inefficient talent pool.

Second, big-spending teams are often desperate teams with a coach or GM clinging to his job. Free agency is often used to cover holes or chase bad investments, so steady and improving teams are better at resisting those temptations.

And third, under the old collective-bargaining agreement, top draft picks commanded huge contracts from bad teams.

The article is worth reading, and a vindication for the Chiefs from some of their critics.

I’m excited to be writing about football and the Chiefs. It was a long and boring off-season as the owners and the players haggled over billions of dollars. With a new long-term deal in place, we shouldn’t have to go through this again any time soon.

Just a few quick notes. We’ll take a more in-depth look at the roster in a few days.

Like it or not, the Chiefs have a plan, and they’ve stuck to it. Last year the Chiefs signed a group of veterans that included guard Ryan Lilja, center Casey Wiegmann, running back Thomas Jones, wide receiver Jerheme Urban (who spent the season on the injured reserve) and defensive lineman Shaun Smith. The fans and the media were underwhelmed. But the Chiefs improved by six games over the season before, and won the AFC West.

This year the media had higher expectations. Misunderstanding the labor agreement, many in the media thought that the Chiefs would be forced to be more aggressive in free agency in order to reach a league minimum for team salary — though if they’d been paying better attention, they’d have realized that the new minimum doesn’t kick in for a couple years.

And apparently they haven’t been paying attention to the Pioli plan in the first place.

This year the Chiefs have signed defensive tackle Kelly Gregg, fullback Le’Ron McClain and wide receiver Steve Breaston. But more importantly, in the last year, the Chiefs have re-signed and extended long-term contracts for linebackers Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Andy Studebaker, and running back Jamaal Charles. My expectation is that before this season is over, the Chiefs will have new deals with wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and cornerback Brandon Flowers.

I love the plan.

The New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles have made the most news with their acquisitions this year. But Super Bowls are not won by big splashes in free agency. They’re won by drafting well, developing your players from within, and plugging a few holes with the right veterans. Look at the recent success of teams like the Packers, the Steelers, the Colts and other Super Bowl winners. You would have included the Patriots in this group while they were winning championships, but they’ve crossed over to the darkside of free agency and appear to be trying to buy one final Super Bowl before Tom Brady and Bill Belichick retire. These winning organizations don’t often sign the “big name” free agents. They draft and develop their core players.

The Chiefs have the right plan, and are executing it well. They have plugged holes in their roster through the draft and free agency. And with continued player development, the Chiefs will be better again this year.

Wow. Good start for the Chiefs. They trade back, pick up a high third round pick, and fill one of their most glaring needs. How can you not like that?

And best of all? They didn’t draft a right offensive tackle in the first round.

Here’s what you need to know about Baldwin. He’s big — almost 6’5″ and 228 pounds. He can stretch the field. He’s fast — he runs a 4.5 40. He’s got great hands and is known for making spectacular catches. And he’s explosive, averaging more than 18 yards per catch in college. He will be a great complement to Dwayne Bowe and Tony Moeaki in the red zone. Matt Cassell should be a happy man today.

Some of the “experts” have labeled Baldwin with some potential character issues. We know how much importance general manager Scott Pioli puts on character. And if Pioli is satisfied with Baldwin’s character, then so am I. (Until proven differently.)

Some may also call Baldwin a “reach” to be taken late in the first round. There were two wide receivers with very high draft grades — A.J. Green and Julio Jones. They were among the first six taken in the draft. Then there was a whole group of receivers with similar grades expected to go in the second round. Baldwin was in this group. Most of the others were under six feet tall. Baldwin was the one that stood out to me as the freak athlete with size, speed and hands. He wasn’t likely to make it to the Chiefs pick in the second round. And the Chiefs obviously had the highest draft grade on him of all the remaining receivers.

Should give some kudos to Nick Wright at 610 Sports who talked about Baldwin as a great choice for the Chiefs prior to the draft. He was hoping that Baldwin would fall to the Chiefs with their second pick, but didn’t expect him to last that long on the board.

The Chiefs have three picks tonight — numbers 55 (round 2), 70 and 86 (round 3). Would like to see the Chiefs find an outside linebacker and interior offensive lineman tonight. GO CHIEFS!

I have a confession to make. I’m not excited about the NFL draft this year. I think my brain is still waiting for free agency. And I’m definitely behind in my research. So take this for what it’s worth. It seems that most mock drafts have the Chiefs selecting an offensive tackle in the first round. If they do, I’ll be shocked.

Let’s review the Chiefs’ biggest needs. And when you think of the team’s needs, don’t just focus on this year. Think about the next three years, and what contracts will be expiring among the current players. And what players are nearing the end of their careers.

1. Nose Tackle: This is where the lack of free agency makes this draft even more interesting than normal. Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith are both free agents. If the Chiefs played a game today, their starting nose tackle would probably be Anthony Toribio. Who? Exactly. Now the Chiefs might feel good that they’ll get Edwards and Smith signed, but there are no guarantees. And neither of them are long-term solutions at nose tackle. This is the biggest hole in a young and developing defensive unit.

2. Wide Receiver: Not only do the Chiefs have a big hole in the starting position opposite Dwayne Bowe, but I believe that Bowe has only one year left on his contract. If they lose Bowe next year, what do they have left? Not much.

3. Offensive Center / Guard: Starting center Casey Wiegmann is a free agent, and he’s 37 years old. Left guard Brian Waters is 34, and nearing the end of his career. The only guy on the roster that looks like a future replacement is Jon Asamoah. The Chiefs need at least one more projected starter for the future interior of their offensive line.

4. Cornerback: Starter Brandon Carr is a free agent, and is inconsistent. Rookie Javier Arenas is good in the slot, but does not project to be a starting cornerback. And you can never have enough good cornerbacks on your team.

You can argue that the team needs more talent at linebacker and at offensive tackle. I won’t argue that point. They do. I just don’t list either as one of their top four needs. Though that doesn’t mean that they won’t find value here with the 21st pick in the draft.

Now back to offensive tackle. When the Chiefs pick late in the first round, the available tackles will likely all be projected as right tackles, not left tackles. Why would you draft a right tackle in the first round when you clearly have other, more important needs? The Chiefs want to find the right fit for the person, the position in the draft, and team need.

So who will the Chiefs draft this year? I would love to see the Chiefs have the opportunity to draft center Mike Pouncey from Florida, who is widely regarded as the best interior offensive lineman available. Most mock drafts have him picked just a few spots in front of the Chiefs. He could slide to the Chiefs, but it’s not likely. The draft appears pretty deep along the defensive line, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Chiefs draft a pass rushing defensive end who they can move to the outside linebacker position opposite Tamba Hali. Late in the first round there’s usually good value for an inside linebacker, and I can imagine the Chiefs looking for some competition for Javon Belcher in the middle. And there are a couple of cornerbacks who are projected to go late in the first round. Corners often seem to go a little higher than they’re ranked, so keep on eye on players such as Aaron Williams and Brandon Harris. The general consensus is that their won’t be a wide receiver on the board worthy of picking when the Chiefs pick. So unless the Chiefs trade down, they’re not likely to grab a receiver with their first pick.

Prediction: If Pouncey is on the board, he’s our man. But that seems unlikely, and he’s the only interior offensive lineman worth taking with this pick. The Chiefs decide they don’t find enough value among the available wide receivers, nose tackles and outside linebackers. They try to trade down but can’t. Wanting a bigger cornerback to partner with Brandon Flowers, the Chiefs pick Aaron Williams from Texas. He’s got good size, and is good against the run and the pass. Does anybody know if he’s a team captain?

The Chiefs’ defense took a significant step forward under new defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel in 2010. After years of struggling on defense, the Chiefs became competent in 2010. But the Chiefs must continue to improve on defense if they want to make a run in the playoffs. While the Chiefs were comparable in offense to the four teams in the AFC and NFC Championship Games this year, they weren’t comparable on defense.

First let’s look at some of the Chiefs’ primary defensive statistics:
Total Defense: #14
Points Allowed: #22
Rushing Defense: #14
Passing Defense: #17

Now let’s look at the final four teams in the playoffs this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Total Defense: #2
Points Allowed: #1
Rushing Defense: #1
Passing Defense: #12

New York Jets
Total Defense: #3
Points Allowed: #6
Rushing Defense: #3
Passing Defense: #6

Green Bay Packers
Total Defense: #5
Points Allowed: #2
Rushing Defense: #18
Passing Defense: #5

Chicago Bears
Total Defense: #9
Points Allowed: #4
Rushing Defense: #2
Passing Defense: #20

It’s not a coincidence that the two teams that made it to the Super Bowl, the Steelers and the Packers, had two of the top defenses in the league, and were the top two in points allowed. When you prevent teams from scoring, you can win a lot of games.

So let’s take a quick look at the Chiefs by position group on defense.

Defensive Line: Glenn Dorsey, Ron Edwards (free agent), Tyson Jackson, Shaun Smith (free agent), Wallace Gilberry (free agent), Anthony Toribio, Dion Gales

The Chiefs developed a nice rotation among their defensive linemen. We’ve seen Dorsey and Gilberry make good strides, and I’m still hopeful that Jackson can as well. Smith was a nice surprise this year, and helped the defense considerably. But the Chiefs need to continue to improve their line. They need a player who can collapse the middle of the pocket on a more consistent basis. I’d really like to see the Chiefs retain Gilberry for his pass rushing skills, who was second on the team with seven sacks. While I’m not opposed to resigning Smith and Edwards, eventually the Chiefs need to find a true nose tackle who can clog up the middle and generate a little pass rush in the pocket. I would expect that the Chiefs will consider a nose tackle high in the draft.

Linebackers: Tamba Hali (free agent), Derrick Johnson, Jovan Belcher, Mike Vrabel (free agent), Corey Mays (free agent), Andy Studebaker, Demorrio Williams, Cameron Sheffield, Charlie Anderson (free agent), Cory Greenwood (free agent), Justin Cole

I have similar feelings about the linebackers as I do the defensive line. We have a good unit, but not a great unit. Hali has become an exceptional pass rusher, and must be resigned. Johnson has become much more consistent, but he’s not the impact player we had hoped. And he drops too many potential interceptions. The Chiefs have been grooming Studebaker to replace Vrabel, but don’t count out Sheffield for this role. He spent the season on injured reserve, and it sounds like the Chiefs really like this kid.

The Chiefs are lacking that guy with the killer instinct like Green Bay’s Clay Matthews or Pittsburgh’s James Harrison. Would love to see the Chiefs target a linebacker in one of the top two rounds, either a pass rushing linebacker to replace Vrabel, or a hard-nosed playermaker in the middle to play with Johnson. An upgrade here would help the Chiefs considerably.

Cornerbacks: Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr (free agent), Javier Arenas, Travis Daniels (free agent), Maurice Leggett (free agent, can also play safety), Donald Washington (can also play safety)

In 2009, the Chiefs were awful when they went into their nickel package utilizing three cornerbacks. Arenas really solidified the nickel spot this year and allowed the Chiefs to play Flowers on the outside. But you can never have enough good corners. Even if they resign Carr, don’t be surprised if the Chiefs draft another cornerback.

Safeties: Eric Berry, Kendrick Lewis, Jon McGraw (free agent), Ricky Price, Reshard Langford (free agent)

The Chiefs appear to have their two safeties of the future with Berry and Lewis. One of the primary reasons the Chiefs improved on defense this year was because of Berry and Lewis, who will only get better.

The Chiefs are strong in their defensive backfield, but a few key improvements to the line and among the linebackers could help the Chiefs reach that next level defensively.

I want to spend some time analyzing what the Chiefs accomplished in 2010, and what they need to do to improve in 2011. Today we’ll talk about the offense. This will include an overview of the various position groups, and the Chiefs’ own free agents.

By The Numbers
The Chiefs made some great strides on offense this year. We watched Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles become playmakers. We saw glimpses from rookies Dexter McCluster and Tony Moeaki of what they can be in the future. And we saw veterans Ryan Lilja and Casey Wiegmann come in and fortify the offensive line.  Statistically, here are some numbers to digest:

Total Offense: #12
Rushing: #1
Passing: #30
Total Points: #14 (avg 22.9 points/game)

It’s a little hard to put these numbers into perspective. And I think they’re a bit misleading. The Chiefs were effective running the ball, and ran the ball more times than any other team in the league. They were also pretty effective in scoring points. But early in the season they put little emphasis on passing the ball. It wasn’t until the loss at Denver that the Chiefs found they could trust Cassel and Bowe to deliver in the passing game. (I wrote this article earlier this year about the emergence of the passing game.) This season was largely about developing the team. As they continue to progress, the Chiefs must find better offensive balance.

Stat: Out of the top ten rushing teams in the league, half of them failed to make the playoffs. This list includes: Oakland, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Houston, Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

I’ve never believed that you want the top running game in the league. And I’ve never believed that you want the top passing game in the league. The best teams typically have balance, and can do both.

Stat: Out of the final four teams in the playoffs, none of them are offensive juggernauts. We could review any of the stats, but here are their numbers in points per game: Green Bay (#10 at 24.2 points/game), Pittsburgh (#12 at 23.4 points/game), New York Jets (#13 at 22.9 points/game), and Chicago (#21 at 20.9 points/game). Next time we’ll take a look at how these teams are defensively. Offense may be sexy, but defense wins in the playoffs. At least it did this year.

What do these numbers mean? They mean that the Chiefs’ offense is on par statistically with these remaining teams in the playoffs.

Position Groups
Let’s take a quick look at the Chiefs’ position groups, and what they need to do moving forward.

Quarterback: Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle (free agent), Tyler Palko

The development of Cassel should put people at ease. He passed for more than 3,000 yards, which is OK considering the Chiefs put so little emphasis on the passing game. What was truly impressive was how he took care of the ball. His TD to INT ratio of 27/7 was spectacular. It will be interesting to see what the Chiefs do with Croyle. The fans want him gone after his ineffective play against the Chargers. But what I found interesting is that the Chiefs had a gameplan for Croyle much like they had in the season opener for Cassel. And early in the season, fans and media pundits were clamoring about how the Chiefs don’t trust Cassel. I think this could go either way, and will not be surprised if the Chiefs bring back Croyle. If they decide to move on, they will need to sign another backup quarterback, or take one late in the draft to develop alongside Palko.

Running Back: Jamaal Charles, Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster, Jackie Battle (free agent)

The Chiefs have quality and depth at running back. Charles is possibly the most explosive player in the league. Jones is strong and dependable. McCluster can make plays when given the opportunity. And Battle has plenty of potential. I hope they resign him, as he’s a good special teams player as well. I am completely onboard with how the Chiefs shared carries between Jones and Charles. I don’t believe that Charles has the body to withstand carrying the ball much more than he did this year. And I can’t imagine any reason why the Chiefs would consider drafting a running back this year.

Fullback: Tim Castille (free agent), Mike Cox (free agent)

The Chiefs shared time this season between Cox and Castille. Both are free agents. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs resigned them both.

Wide Receiver: Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers, Dexter McCluster (yes I also put him in the RB group), Terrance Copper (free agent), Kevin Curtis, Verran Tucker, Jerheme Urban (IR), Jeremy Horne (practice squad), Quinten Lawrence (practice squad)

Bowe finally had his breakout season this year. He was phenomenal when given the opportunity to shine. McCluster is fine to have in the mix, but is not a starting wide receiver. I assume Chambers will be cut. Not sure what happened between Chambers and the Chiefs, but Kansas City is apparently through with him. He was inactive against the Ravens in the playoffs, and the Chiefs started newly signed Curtis. When you watch teams like the Packers, they have three to four receivers who are all capable of making plays. The Chiefs must upgrade the talent they have here, and they must find a starting wide receiver who can take some of the coverage away from Bowe. Would expect the Chiefs to consider a receiver high in the draft. They must improve their passing game in order to have a more balanced offensive attack.

Tight End: Tony Moeaki, Leonard Pope (free agent), Jake O’Connell, Brad Cottam (IR)

Moeaki during this rookie campaign put up better numbers than Tony Gonzalez in his rookie campaign. Very impressive. He runs good routes. He has great hands. And he seems to block pretty well. Not sure what they plan to do with Pope, who is a free agent. It would not surprise me if the Chiefs drafted another tight end this year. While not a great area of need, they can continue to look to upgrade this group.

Offensive Line: Branden Albert, Brain Waters, Casey Wiegmann (free agent), Ryan Lilja, Barry Richardson (free agent), Jon Asamoah, Rudy Niswanger (free agent), Ryan O’Callaghan (free agent)

The offensive line was better this year. It’s clear that Wiegmann and Lilja helped solidify the group. But personally, I’d like to see the Chiefs continue to upgrade the line. I was concerned early in the year with undersized players such as Wiegmann and Lilja anchoring the middle of the line. Waters is nearing the end of his career. Both of their right tackles are free agents. And the line was manhandled by several teams late in the season. I’d like to see rookie Asamoah starting in 2011. He’s a beast, though I’m not sure how you reshuffle the line to make that happen. He played guard in college, but he’s capable of playing center. I’d be curious if you could move Lilja over to center, and start Asamoah at right guard. Waters has also had some experience at center. Would also like to see the Chiefs consider a right tackle early in the draft.

Notes: I have not necessarily listed all practice squad players, or players who were on injured reserve.

Collective Bargaining Agreement
As a fan of the NFL, I hope they get the collective bargaining agreement in place soon. Do not expect any agreement until the last minute, or even later. I will be surprised if we get a lockout, but it’s not out of the question. Under the old rules, many of the Chiefs’ free agents would be restricted or exclusive rights free agents, which means that the Chiefs have some control over them. But without a collective bargaining agreement in place, it’s impossible to predict what will happen with the status of these players.

Free Agency and the Draft
I do not expect the Chiefs to be very active in free agency beyond resigning their own free agents. They made a few strategic signings last year with Lilja, Wiegmann and Shaun Smith. Expect more of the same this year. Substance over flash.

In the draft, fans will be clamoring for wide receivers and offensive linemen. Or possibly a backup quarterback. That’s all well and good, but in my opinion, the defense needs more infusion of talent than the offense. We will cover that next time around.

Offensive Coordinator
It’s been pretty quiet in Kansas City concerning the search for a new offensive coordinator to replace Charlie Weis. ESPN has speculated that the Chiefs have been interested in Denver’s offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, but with McCoy’s history with newly hired head coach John Fox, it appears likely that McCoy will remain in Denver.

Was watching the playoffs yesterday, and a thought crossed my mind. Maybe the Chiefs are waiting to interview an assistant from one of the teams still in the playoffs? And who are the offensive assistant coaches for the New England Patriots?

Did you know that the Patriots don’t list anybody as their offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator? (See Pat’s coaching staff here.)

Bill O’Brien is listed as the quarterbacks coach, and he is the primary play caller for the Patriots. Teams are typically allowed to interview assistant coaches from other staffs so long as the position they’re interviewing for would be a promotion from their current position. And becoming offensive coordinator for the Chiefs would qualify as a promotion for O’Brien.

Though they stumbled against the Jets yesterday in the playoffs, the Patriots had an excellent season offensively. They released WR Randy Moss and traded RB Laurence Maroney early in the season. People assumed that the Patriots were in rebuilding mode. Rebuilding didn’t take long. They ended the season as the highest scoring offense in the league averaging 32.4 points per game.

Now the Patriots can always promote O’Brien and keep teams from interviewing him. And I haven’t seen this speculated anywhere else. It just makes a lot of sense to me. He was on the coaching staff in New England the year Matt Cassel filled in for Tom Brady. The Pats run a similar offense to the Chiefs. And he has experience calling plays in both the NFL and in college. (See O’Brien’s bio here.)

The Raiders are the Raiders
Well the mystery has been solved. I had wondered how Al Davis could be so stupid as to fire the best head coach the Raiders have had since Jon Gruden. (Technically he wasn’t fired, but Davis did not pick up the option on Cable’s contract.) And now the story is out. Davis has been unhappy with Cable about something, and has deducted $120,000 from his paychecks over the last several weeks. Cable has filed a grievance with the NFL against Davis. Sound familiar? According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, “The NFL has had to help settle financial disputes with four of Davis’ past five head coaches.” (See the ESPN story here.) Too funny!

The lack of an NFL collective bargaining agreement will make this an interesting off season. The Chiefs have quite a few players without contracts for 2011. Typically, some of those free agents are restricted or exclusive rights free agents, which means that their team still maintains some control over that player’s future. But without a collective bargaining agreement, nobody knows if these designations will still exist in the new NFL landscape.

Here are the players who do not have contracts for 2011: CB Brandon Carr, DT Ron Edwards, LB Tamba Hali, T Barry Richardson, C Casey Wiegmann, LB Charlie Anderson, RB Jackie Battle, FB Tim Castille, WR Terrance Copper, FB Mike Cox, QB Brodie Croyle, CB Travis Daniels, LB Cory Greenwood, DE Wallace Gilberry, S Reshard Langford, CB Maurice Leggett, LB Corey Mays, S Jon McGraw, C Rudy Niswanger, T Ryan O’Callaghan, TE Leonard Pope, DL Shawn Smith and LB Mike Vrabel.

Whew.

The Chiefs have already extended contracts with RB Jamaal Charles, LB Derrick Johnson, LS Thomas Gafford and LB Andy Studebaker.

My plan is that over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a more in-depth look at the offense, defense and special teams. Today is just to shed some light on the fact that the Chiefs have a lot of decisions to make with their own free agents. Here would be my priorities:

1. LB Tamba Hali: In my opinion, he’s the best player on the defense. I would have made him a priority to resign over LB Derrick Johnson. Hali finished second in the league with 14.5 sacks. He’s only 27 years old. He’s proven to be a real playmaker. He’s relentless after the quarterback. And he’s perfecting the old Derrick Thomas swipe at the football. He forced four fumbles this year (plus another one in the playoffs against the Ravens), and recovered two of them. It is imperative that the Chiefs sign Hali to a long-term contract.

2. CB Brandon Carr: There were some concerns about Carr’s play early in the season, but he played very well down the stretch. And the Chiefs have no replacement for Carr on the roster. Good cornerbacks are hard to find. Especially young ones. The Chiefs need to keep Carr.

3. DE Wallace Gilberry: You might be wondering why Gilberry is my third priority from this list of free agents. Gilberry was second on the team with seven sacks with limited playing time, and he’s only 26 years old. Used primarily in the Chiefs’ rush package, he makes an impact when he’s on the field. And while the Chiefs have an improving defense, they’re not great. And they need players who make an impact.

The Chiefs will certainly sign several others from this list of free agents. For instance, both of their fullbacks are free agents (Castille and Cox), and they’ll likely resign one or both of them. Their two right tackles (Richardson and O’Callaghan) are fairly interchangeable in my opinion. They’ll certainly keep at least one of them. Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith both played well on the defensive line, but I wouldn’t consider it imperative that both are resigned.

Maybe the two most interesting decisions the Chiefs face are Wiegmann (15 years in the league) and Vrabel (14 years in the league). They are the two oldest players on the Chiefs’ roster. Wiegmann played well this year, but I think the Chiefs need to continue to improve their line. I’d like to see Jon Asamoah starting this next season, though I’m not sure how you juggle the line to make that happen. And Vrabel was clearly losing playing time to Studebaker. Plus, there’s no guarantee that either of these guys want to play next year. Wouldn’t surprise me if one or both of them retired, though I think Vrabel is the more likely of the two to retire.

And don’t be surprised if the Chiefs resign Brodie Croyle. The fans will howl, but I think Croyle is better than he displayed in his limited action this year.